{"id":168,"date":"2019-12-15T00:31:02","date_gmt":"2019-12-15T00:31:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/?page_id=168"},"modified":"2020-01-14T05:15:32","modified_gmt":"2020-01-14T05:15:32","slug":"short-term-market-analysis","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/short-term-market-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Short-term Market Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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I have conducted detailed studies of market behavior in various time periods.\u00a0 One of these periods was early 2016, a volatile market environment in which stocks experienced a sharp 10% correction, followed by a recovery.<\/strong><\/p>

The first quarter of 2016 was a very difficult one for many fund managers, according to an article in the Financial Times<\/span> (\u201cInvestors Rake Over Ashes of a Dismal Quarter,\u201d April 5, 2016).\u00a0 In fact the article cites data to the effect that it was one of the worst quarters in recent history for active managers, with the vast majority underperforming their benchmarks.<\/strong><\/p>

The article states, \u201cThey were simply wrong about the direction of the economy, and therefore markets\u2026\u00a0 fund managers were in exactly the wrong sectors\u2026\u00a0 By the time the market bounced and reversed, many fund managers had given up their more bullish cyclical bets, and missed out again.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>

\u201cThere was a problem for the momentum strategy\u2026\u00a0 many had piled into a few high momentum winners\u2026\u00a0 Almost nothing worked during both halves of the quarter except valuation, a now out of vogue attribute\u2026\u00a0 The median return of the 11 most popular stocks held by hedge funds, according to Mr. Kostin, was minus 10%.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>

\u201cAnother problem came with beta.\u00a0 A high-beta stock is unusually sensitive to the overall market\u2026\u00a0 This year, that strategy failed spectacularly\u2026\u00a0 Add a difficult market to an economic climate that took many investors by surprise, and then add the collapse of some crude strategies that many managers use\u2026\u00a0 and you get the disaster that was the first quarter.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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My research shows that it is possible to successfully analyze such situations<\/span> and make logical investment decisions that result in good investment performance.\u00a0 This can be done with a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.\u00a0 Also we can make decisions on sector weights and stock selection by using a set of rules or guidelines specifying what actions to take when market conditions change.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>

This is discussed in the following excerpts from my report \u201cA Comprehensive Approach to Equity Market Analysis.\u201d\u00a0 (Note:\u00a0 the following paragraphs are just excerpts, they are not the complete report.)<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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\u2026 Let us take a look at how the methodology outlined in this report handled sector rotation and stock selection in the first quarter of 2016.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>

We will look at the following questions<\/span>:<\/strong><\/p>

1)\u00a0 How could we have known to move to a defensive investment posture in December 2015 or early January 2016, shifting client portfolios with a reduction in equity exposure and \/ or a move into defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples?<\/strong><\/p>

2)\u00a0 How could we have known to move back to a more aggressive posture in mid-February 2016, with an increase in equity exposure and \/ or a move into high-beta sectors?<\/strong><\/p>

A.\u00a0 General Market Conditions<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

By year-end 2015 the condition of the stock market was not terrible, but it was becoming increasingly worrisome, for the following reasons:<\/strong><\/p>

1.\u00a0 Oil prices, high yield bonds, and emerging markets were breaking down to new lows.\u00a0 These markets were in clear downtrends with no signs of a bottom yet, and their weakness was putting downward pressure on stocks, as these asset classes were connected by the fundamentals.<\/strong><\/p>

2.\u00a0 U.S. equity indices were displaying bearish patterns:<\/strong><\/p>

a.\u00a0 Sharp selloffs on heavy volume<\/strong>
b.\u00a0 Selloffs falling through support levels, rallies ending at resistance levels<\/strong>
c.\u00a0 Lower highs and lower lows<\/strong><\/p>

3.\u00a0 Group rotation showed that energy and basic materials were plunging.\u00a0 The only sectors acting well were safe havens such as consumer staples and utilities.<\/strong><\/p>

As January 2016 began, markets dropped sharply, sparked by worrisome geopolitical news including North Korea testing a hydrogen bomb, and Saudi Arabia cutting diplomatic ties with Iran.

<\/strong><\/p>

Figure 18\u00a0 \u00a0S&P 500 (SPY) daily December 2015 \u2013 March 2016\u00a0 — forms a Double Bottom<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Mid-February 2016 \u2013 Market hits bottom and new uptrend starts<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

In mid-February t<\/strong>he S&P 500 retested its January low (see Figure 18).\u00a0 Instead of breaking down to a new low, on 2\/11\/16 it stopped going down at almost exactly the same level.\u00a0 Then it rallied, beginning with a gap up on 2\/12\/16.\u00a0 This was a significant event, showing that buyers had come in at the support level.<\/strong><\/p>

The market continued to rise over the next few days, providing further confirmation that a double bottom was in place<\/span>.\u00a0 Investor\u2019s Business Daily<\/span> (investors.com) stated that 2\/17\/16 was a \u201cfollow through day\u201d or the type of trading day which confirmed that the correction was over and a new uptrend had begun.<\/strong><\/p>

Given these circumstances, conditions were right to do some buying in mid-February 2016.\u00a0 The market was showing a surge of institutional buying pressure, but it was not overbought yet, in fact it was just coming up from being oversold.<\/strong><\/p>

In such circumstances, buying could be done either immediately or over the following weeks, as new market leadership emerged.\u00a0 There are ways to determine what stocks should be bought, as will be discussed below<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p>

Market conditions could now be categorized in the \u201cUptrend Starts\u201d category.\u00a0 Thus we refer to the playbook to see what actions should be taken.\u00a0 Under these conditions, the playbook says the following:<\/strong><\/p>

1.\u00a0 Asset allocation<\/strong><\/span> \u2013<\/strong><\/p>

a.\u00a0 Put cash to work — increase equity exposure<\/strong><\/p>

b. Reduce positions in asset classes that have negative correlations to equities, such as bonds or gold<\/strong><\/p>

2.\u00a0 Sector rotation<\/span> \u2013 <\/strong><\/p>

a.\u00a0 Move out of safe haven groups<\/strong><\/p>

b.\u00a0 Look for stocks that have become extremely oversold \u2013 they may make a sharp rebound from their oversold condition when the market turns up<\/strong><\/p>

c.\u00a0 Look for new emerging leadership \u2013 such as stocks that made a higher low as the market made the second low of its double bottom<\/strong><\/p>

d.\u00a0 Look for stocks that were in ideal technical positions just before the market selloff began, but then were dragged down by the correction \u2013 especially if they show signs of renewed institutional buying (see the discussion of NVDA below).<\/strong><\/p>


In this case the asset allocation decision was clear, because stocks were oversold and bouncing up from support.\u00a0 In general, when the market has formed a bottom and starts to make a strong rebound from an oversold condition, the risk \/ reward ratio is very favorable<\/span>, and provides a good opportunity to be aggressive and make money, perhaps using leveraged ETFs or similar vehicles.<\/strong><\/p>

For example, SPXL, the triple long S&P 500 ETF, gained 34% in seven weeks from 2\/12\/16 \u2013 3\/31\/16.\u00a0 A good part of the performance for an entire year may be generated by making the right moves in this type of environment.<\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Even if we do not make any changes in asset allocation, this analysis can have major implications for sector rotation and stock selection<\/span>, as will be discussed below.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Stock selection<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

… As mentioned above, another valuable tactic is to look for stocks that were in ideal technical positions just before the correction began, but then were dragged down by the market selloff \u2013 especially if they show signs of renewed institutional buying as the market rebounds.<\/strong><\/p>

Semiconductor stock Nvidia (NVDA) had broken out to a new high in October 2015<\/span>, and in late 2015 it made a strong move up on big volume with strong money flow (see Figure 10 below).\u00a0 In late December 2015, it was forming its first pullback to its 50-day moving average, which in a normal market environment would be a good buying opportunity.<\/strong><\/p>

However it was then dragged down by the sharp market correction<\/span> which occurred in early 2016.\u00a0 This is shown in the following chart.<\/strong><\/p>

Figure 10\u00a0 \u00a0NVDA \u2013 Weekly chart \u2013 an attractive buy candidate in early 2016<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Figure 11\u00a0\u00a0 NVDA \u2013 Daily Chart \u2013 Early 2016<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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As the market rebounded in mid-February 2016, NVDA shot higher with a dramatic gap up on huge volume, indicating major institutional buying coming into the stock (Figure 11).\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>

Following these bullish developments, the stock rose sharply over the next few months<\/span> (as seen in Figure 10), and eventually went much higher over the next few years.<\/strong><\/p>

This shows the value of a rule-based approach<\/span>, in which first we analyze the market condition, then use the appropriate tactics for stock selection.\u00a0 <\/strong>In this case the market condition could be categorized as \u201ccorrection has ended, uptrend starts.\u201d\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>

In this situation, one of our investment rules is:\u00a0 “Look for stocks that were in ideal technical positions just before the correction began, but then were dragged down by the correction \u2013 especially if they show signs of renewed institutional buying as the market recovers.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>

My research shows that this type of logical, top-down, rule-based process can be very effective, and can\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>lead to good investment performance in difficult market environments<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I have conducted detailed studies of market behavior in various time periods.\u00a0 One of these periods was early 2016, a volatile market environment in which stocks experienced a sharp 10% correction, followed by a recovery. The first quarter of 2016 was a very difficult one for many fund managers, according to an article in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-168","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\nShort-term Market Analysis - Strauss Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The first quarter of 2016 was a difficult period for investors but such situations can be analyzed effectively. www.straussresearch.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/short-term-market-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Short-term Market Analysis - Strauss Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The first quarter of 2016 was a difficult period for investors but such situations can be analyzed effectively. www.straussresearch.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/short-term-market-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Strauss Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-01-14T05:15:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/SR-SPY-JANFEB2016-d-1024x725.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/short-term-market-analysis\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/short-term-market-analysis\\\/\",\"name\":\"Short-term Market Analysis - 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