{"id":223,"date":"2019-12-15T23:56:42","date_gmt":"2019-12-15T23:56:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/?page_id=223"},"modified":"2020-01-17T01:11:03","modified_gmt":"2020-01-17T01:11:03","slug":"sector-rotation","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/sector-rotation\/","title":{"rendered":"Sector Rotation"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"223\" class=\"elementor elementor-223\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-b544510 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"b544510\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c991d00\" data-id=\"c991d00\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c4bf0f7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c4bf0f7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>The following excerpt is from my report \u201cOutperforming Equity Market Benchmarks with Sector Rotation.\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><strong>\u2026 <\/strong><strong>By having good software in place and reviewing market activity on a regular basis, we can identify important developments in sector rotation as they unfold, which can make a significant contribution to investment performance.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p><p><strong>In order to do this, we need to scan the market on a regular basis, to identify which stocks are forming the main bullish and bearish technical signals that often tend to work in a leading manner.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p><p><strong>Based on detailed study of the &#8220;Chart School&#8221; program from <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Investor&#8217;s Business Daily<\/span> and other sources, I have created an outline covering all the most important technical conditions for buying and selling stocks.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Bullish technical developments which form \u201cBuy\u201d signals include<\/span>:<br \/><\/strong><\/p><p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>\u2022\u00a0 A breakout to a new high, after forming a base or consolidation period.<br \/><\/strong><br \/><strong>\u2022\u00a0 An upturn from a support level.\u00a0 One common situation is a pullback to the 50-day moving average, followed by signs of renewed buying, such as a strong move up on big volume.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Other situations are bearish, and indicate that stocks should be sold<\/span>.\u00a0 These can be divided into two types:\u00a0 offensive and defensive.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Offensive selling refers to selling into strength<\/span> when a stock is very overbought.\u00a0 Offensive sell signals include:<\/strong><\/p><p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>\u2022\u00a0 A stock rising above its upper trend channel<\/strong><\/p><p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>\u2022\u00a0 A \u201cclimax top\u201d (an example is shown in the full report).<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Defensive selling is done when a stock starts to turn down<\/strong><\/span><strong>.\u00a0 <\/strong><strong>Defensive sell signals include:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li><strong>A sharp drop below the 50-day moving average.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>A downturn from a resistance level.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong><strong>Money flow turns negative.<\/strong><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6a4eed0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6a4eed0\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-93e4867\" data-id=\"93e4867\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ab3dc0a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ab3dc0a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Case Study:\u00a0 Sector Rotation in 2014<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><strong>Every year there are likely to be several major shifts in group rotation within the market.\u00a0 As a case study, we will review some key market events in the year 2014.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>&#8230; In summary, some of the correct moves in sector rotation in 2014 would have been as follows:<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>\u2026 <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">August \u2013 October<\/span>: <\/strong><\/p><ul><li><strong>Move to an <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">underweight<\/span> in the energy and basic materials sectors. <\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Move to <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">overweight<\/span> in groups that benefit from lower oil prices, such as airlines and retailers.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-367d4e3 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"367d4e3\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-cfaa505\" data-id=\"cfaa505\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-82edb2f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"82edb2f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>In each case there were specific &#8220;buy&#8221; and &#8220;sell&#8221; signals present in the charts.\u00a0 Recognizing these signals would be extremely valuable for making good investment decisions.<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Sell signals in the energy stocks<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><strong>As the price of oil peaked in the summer of 2014, the oil stocks also started to turn down, giving a number of sell signals in the July \u2013 September period.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>A good example is provided by Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ).\u00a0 This stock had a pattern similar to USO, forming numerous sell signals from July to September 2014 (see Figure 12 below):<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Figure 12 Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) Daily \u2013 2014<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-ba6e345 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"ba6e345\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d94adcc\" data-id=\"d94adcc\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7bc9b83 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"7bc9b83\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/CNQ-renamed-from-NVDA.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-234\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/CNQ-renamed-from-NVDA.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/CNQ-renamed-from-NVDA.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/CNQ-renamed-from-NVDA.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/CNQ-renamed-from-NVDA.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6188f39 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6188f39\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c71fe5c\" data-id=\"c71fe5c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5bd6adf elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5bd6adf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>\u2022\u00a0 <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">On 8\/1\/14 it plunged below its 50-day moving average on huge volume<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>\u2022\u00a0 However, when it rallied back to the moving average, the rally was on low volume, and instead of breaking up through this resistance level, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the stock sold off sharply on big volume on 9\/2\/14<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>\u2022\u00a0 In September the stock continued to drop, and in early October <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">it plunged below its 200-day moving average on big volume<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>\u2022\u00a0 <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Money flow and relative strength turned down<\/span> in August, and continued to deteriorate in September.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><br \/>This is not the behavior of a healthy stock that we want to own.\u00a0 The relationship of price and volume was very bearish, with <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">sharp selloffs on big volume and rally attempts on light volume<\/span>.\u00a0 When the stock pulled back to support levels, such as moving averages and prior lows, it did not find support there, but instead broke through those levels on huge volume.\u00a0 <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">These are all signs of institutional selling<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><br \/>Notably, the vast majority of energy stocks, as well as energy ETF\u2019s, all behaved in a similar manner during this time period<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>Thus, during the July 2014 \u2013 early October 2014 period, both the price of oil and most of the oil stocks were showing numerous sell signals, warning that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the energy sector was becoming increasingly risky and that the trend was down<\/span>.\u00a0 In addition the outlook for oil prices was bearish for various fundamental reasons.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>As these developments unfolded, it was clear that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">a move to an underweighted position in the energy sector was warranted<\/span>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>Following these developments, oil prices plunged from the $90 range to below $30 a barrel by early 2016, and the energy sector underperformed the S&amp;P 500 for more than a year.<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Figure 11 USO (oil prices) Weekly &#8212; late 2012 thru early 2015<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-0358a3c elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"0358a3c\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-437cf60\" data-id=\"437cf60\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8a273f9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"8a273f9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/BP-USO-W.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-240\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/BP-USO-W.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/BP-USO-W.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/BP-USO-W.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/BP-USO-W.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6538681 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6538681\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-a4e4560\" data-id=\"a4e4560\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f108de6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f108de6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>&#8230; Recognizing the type of developments shown above, and using them to make decisions on stock selection and sector weights, would make a substantial contribution to one\u2019s investment performance relative to the S&amp;P 500 in 2014.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>The preceding discussion provided a good example of detecting major <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">institutional selling<\/span> in a group of stocks, and moving to an <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">underweight<\/span> in the group.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>By comparison, the next case study shows a bullish situation, in which a group of stocks showed major <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">institutional buying<\/span> activity, leading to the conclusion that we should <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">overweight<\/span> the group.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>(The following excerpt is from my report \u201cA Consistent Process for Equity Market Strategy.\u201d)<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Case Study:\u00a0 The Semiconductor Stocks in 2016<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-54fd43d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"54fd43d\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-ef47c5a\" data-id=\"ef47c5a\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-734b7b9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"734b7b9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>In mid-2016, the S&amp;P 500 had just bounced back strongly after a sharp selloff related to Brexit, and the technology sector was a leading sector.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>Within that sector, the semiconductor stocks were a leading group, as evidenced by the fact that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the relative strength line of the semiconductor group broke out to a new high in July 2016<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>We would not make an investment decision based only on the relative strength line.\u00a0 But by noting its breakout, we can focus on this group and research the underlying stocks in more detail.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>We can study the fundamental outlook, as well as charts of the individual stocks.\u00a0 In so doing, we can put together the pieces of the puzzle, and see if the bullish picture from the relative strength line is <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">confirmed by additional evidence<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>In July 2016 many of the largest stocks in the semiconductor group had bullish chart patterns, such as Lam Research (LRCX), which had just broken out to a new high (see Figure 9).<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Figure 9 Lam Research (LRCX) \u2013 example of a semiconductor stock in July 2016<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-63b97da elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"63b97da\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-99c9acf\" data-id=\"99c9acf\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cec5aa6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"cec5aa6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/LRCX-W-2016-b.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-251\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/LRCX-W-2016-b.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/LRCX-W-2016-b.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/LRCX-W-2016-b.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/LRCX-W-2016-b.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-e368135 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e368135\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-cf1a11d\" data-id=\"cf1a11d\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6c30ce8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6c30ce8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Over the next few weeks, the group continued to gain strength, as more of the semiconductor stocks moved higher in response to good earnings news.\u00a0 The breakout in LRCX was the start of a major move higher (Figure 10).<\/strong><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Figure 10\u00a0 \u00a0LRCX \u2013 behavior after the breakout shown in previous chart<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-971d16d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"971d16d\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c17bedc\" data-id=\"c17bedc\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5a2bf01 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5a2bf01\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/LRCX-W-2017-b.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-255\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/LRCX-W-2017-b.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/LRCX-W-2017-b.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/LRCX-W-2017-b.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/LRCX-W-2017-b.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-540666e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"540666e\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-f715737\" data-id=\"f715737\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1c08cb7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1c08cb7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Why did the breakout in LRCX in July 2016 lead to such large gains?\u00a0 After all, in some cases breakouts fail.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>One of the main reasons is that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the whole industry group was starting to gain strength, as evidenced by the bullish charts of numerous other semiconductor stocks<\/span>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><strong>In mid- to late-2016, many of these stocks were forming bullish patterns, including:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li><strong>Breakouts to new highs<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Increases in money flow<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Signs of renewed buying after pullbacks to support.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><p><strong>These signals did not all occur on the same day or in the same week, but there was a trend unfolding over a number of weeks.<br \/><br \/><\/strong><\/p><p><strong>By spotting the signs in stock behavior that often occur at the start of big moves, and <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">aggregating this data by sector and industry group, we can see which groups are starting to gain strength<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>This is very different from looking at rankings that simply show which groups have already gone up the most.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>Looking at the fundamentals, most of the semiconductor stocks reported significant <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">positive earnings surprises<\/span> in July 2016.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>In general, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">both fundamental and technical data for the semiconductor stocks was very positive<\/span> in July 2016, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">leading to the conclusion that the group should be overweighted<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>We want to own the \u201c<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">strongest stocks in the strongest groups<\/span>\u201d but we need to find them <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">in the early stages of their moves, not just after they have already gone up<\/span>.\u00a0 This case study shows an example of finding such stocks in a forward-looking manner.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-0794c2a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"0794c2a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-592cace\" data-id=\"592cace\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5f45a00 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5f45a00\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; color: #000080;\"><strong>A Process to Monitor Sectors with both Fundamental and Technical Data<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><strong>As seen in the 2014 case study, the market sectors generally hand off leadership from one to another, like runners in a relay race.\u00a0 After a big move up, one group gets tired and succumbs to profit-taking, while another group starts to rise and takes over the lead role.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Thus, as we make decisions in managing investment portfolios, we should continually ask<\/span>:<\/strong><\/p><ol><li><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">What groups are starting to act well<\/span>, with stocks forming various bullish signals, such as breaking out of bases, or showing upturns in relative strength?<\/strong><\/li><li><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">What groups are showing signs of peaking<\/span>, with stocks forming various sell signals?<\/strong><\/li><\/ol><p><strong>In order to answer these questions, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">we need to have procedures in place to consistently monitor the market,<\/span> so that we can identify which stocks and groups are forming bullish or bearish signals.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">In order to address these issues, I have designed and built a weekly process for managing market data<\/span>.\u00a0 This includes pattern recognition software to scan the market and find all stocks forming various technical patterns.\u00a0 For example, each week we can identify which stocks have just broken out to new highs, etc.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Then this technical data is aligned with fundamental data from a quantitative stock selection model<\/span>, showing, for example, which stocks have bullish fundamentals based on factors such as earnings estimate revisions.\u00a0 As an example, the figure below shows a summary of technical and fundamental data for the various market sectors as of 10\/5\/18.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-b028c98 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"b028c98\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-befed54\" data-id=\"befed54\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e24ff7d elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"e24ff7d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"198\" height=\"300\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/Sector-Summary-100518.jpg?fit=198%2C300&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-607\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/Sector-Summary-100518.jpg?w=544&amp;ssl=1 544w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/Sector-Summary-100518.jpg?resize=198%2C300&amp;ssl=1 198w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 198px) 100vw, 198px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-1f95bf6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"1f95bf6\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-42d064e\" data-id=\"42d064e\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2a788ce elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2a788ce\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>The spreadsheet from which this summary is taken contains much more detail.\u00a0 In addition to this sector data, it provides more detailed data on over 100 industry groups, as well as company-specific data on over 1,000 individual stocks.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>&#8230; This process provides the ability to <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">cut through the information overload<\/span>,\u00a0 gain insights into sectors and industry groups, and zero in on which stocks are good candidates for both buying and selling.<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><br \/><span style=\"color: #000080; text-decoration: underline;\">Coordinating Sector Analysis with Market Conditions<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><strong>Finally, it is important to note that sector rotation should be viewed within the context of overall market conditions.\u00a0 \u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Analysis of sectors and stocks should be coordinated with the behavior of the overall market<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>&#8230; This is best done with a top-down, step by step process.\u00a0 First we determine the condition of the overall market, then we analyze sectors, industries, and individual stocks.\u00a0 Then we can put together the pieces of the puzzle and draw investment conclusions.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p><p><em><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Note:\u00a0 an example of this complete investment process is shown in the nearby report entitled &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/example-of-market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Investment Strategy Case Study<\/a>.<\/span>&#8221;\u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p><p><strong>To gain the benefits of this investment research process, please contact Jonathan Strauss, CFA:\u00a0 \u00a0 jon@straussresearch.com<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The following excerpt is from my report \u201cOutperforming Equity Market Benchmarks with Sector Rotation.\u201d \u2026 By having good software in place and reviewing market activity on a regular basis, we can identify important developments in sector rotation as they unfold, which can make a significant contribution to investment performance.\u00a0 In order to do this, we [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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