{"id":283,"date":"2019-12-17T20:48:02","date_gmt":"2019-12-17T20:48:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/?page_id=283"},"modified":"2020-01-18T05:42:51","modified_gmt":"2020-01-18T05:42:51","slug":"statistical-methods-vs-technical-analysis","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/statistical-methods-vs-technical-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Statistical Methods vs. Technical Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"283\" class=\"elementor elementor-283\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5b54d52 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5b54d52\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-20873ef\" data-id=\"20873ef\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e9a7192 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e9a7192\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Statistical procedures such as regressions and correlations are powerful tools for data analysis that are very effective in many fields of study.\u00a0 However, I believe that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">analyzing price data with statistical methods is not the optimal way to make investment decisions<\/span>, for a variety of reasons.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><br \/><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Financial market data has certain unique characteristics, because markets are influenced by factors such as crowd psychology and the behavior of institutional investors<\/span>:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li><strong><strong><strong><strong>Investors sometimes behave with a herd mentality, meaning that prices tend to swing too far in both directions.\u00a0 At times the stock market can become very overbought (as in January 2018) or very oversold (as in December 2018).<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><p>\u00a0<\/p><\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong>In many cases, investors who bought a stock at (for example) $100, only to see it drop to $70, decide that they will sell if it ever gets back to $100, in order to break even.\u00a0 Similarly, many investors who missed a big move up in a stock decide that they will buy it on the next pullback.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><p>\u00a0<\/p><\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong>This type of <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">psychological behavior creates support and resistance levels<\/span>.\u00a0 Certain price levels can become significant, and breaks through them can be meaningful.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><p>\u00a0<\/p><\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong>When a stock breaks out to a new high, it does not face any resistance, meaning it may be able to advance more easily than a stock that is below its old high.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><p>\u00a0<\/p><\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Institutions often buy stocks at key support levels such as the 50-day moving average<\/span>.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><p>\u00a0<\/p><\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong>Markets tend to move in trends, in which advances are followed by pullbacks, and declines are followed by rallies.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><p>\u00a0<\/p><\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Trading volume can be meaningful<\/span>, and price moves on big volume can be more significant than moves on light volume.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><p>\u00a0<\/p><\/li><li><strong><strong>On any trading day (or other time period such as a week, an hour, etc.) there are four significant prices:\u00a0 the Open, Close, High and Low.\u00a0 The relationships among these four prices can be significant, and can provide insights into how the balance between the buyers and sellers is playing out.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>These relationships are best seen in candlestick charts.\u00a0 In some cases, candlestick patterns can have meaningful investment implications.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><p>\u00a0<\/p><\/li><li><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">When candlestick reversal patterns occur at support or resistance levels, they can indicate market turning poin<\/span><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ts<\/span>.\u00a0 For example, in May 2008 the S&amp;P 500 weekly chart formed a bearish engulfing pattern after rising to the resistance level of its 200-day moving average.\u00a0 This was a noteworthy bearish development (please see the article &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/long-term-market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Long-term Market Analysis<\/a>&#8221; for more detail).\u00a0 An example of a bullish situation occurred in February 2016, when the S&amp;P 500 daily chart showed a bullish candlestick pattern at the support level of its prior low (please see the article &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/short-term-market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Short-Term Market Analysis<\/a>&#8221; for more detail.)<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><p><strong><br \/>Due to these and other related phenomena, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the market is not a pure math pr<\/span><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">oblem<\/span>, and the best way to analyze it is not with statistical methods.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>\u2026 Price data moves randomly, but <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">this does not prove that analyzing charts is worthless<\/span>.\u00a0 There are many ways of analyzing <\/strong><strong>price and volume activity that add value to the investment process, including identifying overbought or oversold conditions, breakouts to new highs, etc.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>This information can be seen in charts, but is not apparent in statistical calculations.\u00a0 Of course, due to the market&#8217;s inherent volatility and riskiness, studying charts is not perfect, but there is no perfect tool for analyzing the market.\u00a0 Correlations are not perfect either, as will be discussed below.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><br \/><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Analyzing Market Relationships<\/span><br \/>My research shows that much of the value from using technical analysis comes not from looking at any one chart by itself, but from studying the relationships among multiple charts.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Information that has not been arbitraged away often can be found in market relationships<\/span>, such as how a stock or industry group is moving relative to the S&amp;P 500.<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Figure 6\u00a0 Electronic Gaming industry group index vs. S&amp;P 500\u00a0 \u00a0(daily)\u00a0 \u00a0March \u2013 April 2017<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-31a1ffa elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"31a1ffa\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b47fd6c\" data-id=\"b47fd6c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9b95023 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"9b95023\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/ELEC-GAMING-RS-test8.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-289\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/ELEC-GAMING-RS-test8.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/ELEC-GAMING-RS-test8.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/ELEC-GAMING-RS-test8.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/ELEC-GAMING-RS-test8.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-8de4cd7 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"8de4cd7\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-de99eff\" data-id=\"de99eff\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ebfb677 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ebfb677\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>With a good software package, several charts can be aligned vertically (as shown in Figure 6), and in each chart we can add trendlines and other indicators.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>For the purpose of making investment decisions, viewing market relationships with this type of analysis can be more valuable than running statistical calculations.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>In late April 2017, electronic gaming stock Take Two Interactive (TTWO) broke out to a new high, and subsequently outperformed the market by a wide margin, with a gain of 75% over the remainder of 2017, compared to 12% for the S&amp;P 500.\u00a0 (This case study is discussed in more detail in the article entitled &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/managing-data-effectively\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Managing Data Effectively,&#8221;<\/a> as well as in one of my longer white papers.\u00a0 Please contact me by e-mail for a copy of this report.)\u00a0 In addition to its good fundamentals and good chart pattern, further evidence for buying TTWO in April 2017 was seen in the relationship between the electronic gaming group and the S&amp;P 500.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>As seen in the chart above, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">this industry group had good relative strength during the market pullback of March &#8211; April 2017, and then broke out to a new high just as the pullback ended<\/span>.\u00a0 These were very bullish developments for the group, further supporting the case for buying TTWO.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>In this situation, there were several specific events which showed that buying TTWO was a good idea in late April 2017:\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p><p><strong>1) the S&amp;P 500 broke up through a downward-sloping trendline<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>2) the industry group index broke out to a new high<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>3) the stock broke out to a new high<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">However, such<\/span><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> developments are not apparent in statistical calculations, such as a regression or correlation based on data for the past 12 months.\u00a0 <\/span><\/strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">The specific price moves that lead to valuable investment conclusions will be buried among all the other data from prior weeks and months that go into the calculation<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Statistical calculations do a good job of summarizing the relationship between two assets over a given time period such as the past 12 months<\/span>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><strong>However, they do not consider current market conditions, such as whether the market is overbought, oversold, in a correction, etc., and <\/strong><strong>they do not consider specific developments that may have investment significance.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">In general, by reviewing numerous charts and indicators<\/span>, in conjunction with the fundamentals, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">we can see how the whole mosaic of market activity is unfolding.\u00a0 This process can lead to valuable investment conclusions<\/span>.\u00a0 <\/strong><strong>(Examples are shown in other articles, such as &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/example-of-market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Investment Strategy Case Study<\/a>.&#8221;)<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f89b9f9 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f89b9f9\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-87f9d2a\" data-id=\"87f9d2a\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2a8bb2a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2a8bb2a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><br \/>Correlations Do Not Always Lead to Good Investment Conclusions<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><strong>Correlations are frequently used to analyze the relationships among various assets.\u00a0 However, just as charts do not always have good predictive ability, correlations do not always work as expected.\u00a0 The following comments are from one of my white papers:<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>&#8230; The following charts provide a historical example of why correlations are not the optimal way to analyze asset allocation.\u00a0 Correlations frequently change over time, in some cases dramatically.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>As an example, if we were using correlations to build a diversified portfolio in mid-2008, we might look at the correlation between oil prices and stocks, and see that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">these two asset classes had a negative correlation<\/span>.\u00a0 As seen in Figure 35 below, oil prices rose sharply from mid-2007 to mid-2008, while stocks were in a downtrend as of mid-2008. In other words, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">oil was going up while stocks were going down \u2013 the two asset classes had a negative correlation<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Figure 35 \u2013 As of mid-2008, Oil prices and Stocks had a Negative Correlation<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5fca2bc elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5fca2bc\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-741961b\" data-id=\"741961b\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ed39838 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"ed39838\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/COR-XOIL-SPX-2008.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1228\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/COR-XOIL-SPX-2008.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/COR-XOIL-SPX-2008.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/COR-XOIL-SPX-2008.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/COR-XOIL-SPX-2008.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5bc187b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5bc187b\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-8d42be6\" data-id=\"8d42be6\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-74c4894 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"74c4894\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Therefore, if we were using correlations to build a client portfolio in mid-2008, we might conclude that in order to build a diversified portfolio, with low risk, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">we should buy both oil and stocks<\/span>.\u00a0 The negative correlation tells us that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">they move in opposite directions<\/span>.\u00a0 If one asset goes up, the other goes down.\u00a0 Therefore we should own both oil and stocks, and this would reduce the risk of the portfolio.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">However, over the next six months, both oil and stocks plunged<\/span>.\u00a0 Oil prices dropped sharply in late 2008, falling from $146 a barrel to $40.\u00a0 At the same time, stocks plunged in a market crash of historic proportions.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>The two asset classes both dropped sharply, and <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the correlation suddenly turned from negative to positive (see charts below)<\/span>.\u00a0 Owning these two asset classes in this time period did not provide any reduction in risk, in fact it created a highly risky portfolio.\u00a0 In this situation, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">studying correlations to determine asset allocation did not work at all, and led to the wrong conclusion<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>In fact, if we were building a client portfolio in this time period, the correct investment decision was not to buy both oil and stocks.\u00a0 It was to <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">sell both oil and stocks,<\/span> and move into cash.<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Figure 36 \u2013 In late 2008, both Oil and Stocks plunged together \u2013 their Correlation turned Positive<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-243029b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"243029b\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-586e942\" data-id=\"586e942\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b685dd9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"b685dd9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/SR-CORR-USO-vs-SPY.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-326\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/SR-CORR-USO-vs-SPY.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/SR-CORR-USO-vs-SPY.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/SR-CORR-USO-vs-SPY.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/SR-CORR-USO-vs-SPY.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-d085437 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"d085437\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-007a1ed\" data-id=\"007a1ed\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3da951d elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"3da951d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/CORR-TEST.jpg?fit=1024%2C571&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-319\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/CORR-TEST.jpg?w=1104&amp;ssl=1 1104w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/CORR-TEST.jpg?resize=300%2C167&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/CORR-TEST.jpg?resize=1024%2C571&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/CORR-TEST.jpg?resize=768%2C429&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-8d3f5eb elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"8d3f5eb\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-471218e\" data-id=\"471218e\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8d34848 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8d34848\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Figure 37 shows how <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the correlation between oil and stocks suddenly changed dramatically<\/span> when both asset classes plunged in late 2008.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">So how could we know that we should be reducing exposure to these two asset classes before they plunged<\/span>?\u00a0 Oil had become extremely overbought by mid-2008.\u00a0 It had reached its upper trend channel, and then in July 2008 it formed a bearish candlestick sell signal (see chart below).<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>This situation is an example of &#8220;offensive selling,&#8221; or <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">selling into strength after an asset has made a dramatic move up<\/span> and has become extremely overbought.\u00a0 In such a situation, its gains are unsustainable, and the prudent course of action would be to reduce exposure, or at least place stop loss orders to lock in gains if the asset starts to drop.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p><p><strong>Note that in order to reduce exposure to oil when it was near $140 a barrel, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">we did not need to predict that oil prices would drop to $40<\/span>.\u00a0 We simply needed to realize that oil prices had made an abnormal, unsustainable move up to an extremely overbought level, so reducing exposure would be the prudent course of action.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>As for stocks, market conditions had clearly deteriorated by mid-2008, calling for a reduction in equity exposure.\u00a0 Please see the article &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/long-term-market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Long-term Market Analysis<\/a>&#8221; for a more detailed discussion.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Figure 38\u00a0 Oil prices had become very overbought by mid-2008<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4352aab elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4352aab\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-719cffb\" data-id=\"719cffb\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c4436fe elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"c4436fe\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XOIL-7Day-2007-2008-c.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1249\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XOIL-7Day-2007-2008-c.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XOIL-7Day-2007-2008-c.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XOIL-7Day-2007-2008-c.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XOIL-7Day-2007-2008-c.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Statistical procedures such as regressions and correlations are powerful tools for data analysis that are very effective in many fields of study.\u00a0 However, I believe that analyzing price data with statistical methods is not the optimal way to make investment decisions, for a variety of reasons. Financial market data has certain unique characteristics, because markets [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-283","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Statistical Methods vs. Technical Analysis - Strauss Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analyzing price data with statistical methods is not the optimal way to make investment decisions. 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