{"id":59,"date":"2019-12-12T02:46:01","date_gmt":"2019-12-12T02:46:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/straussresearch.com\/?page_id=59"},"modified":"2020-01-17T00:38:59","modified_gmt":"2020-01-17T00:38:59","slug":"asset-allocation","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/asset-allocation\/","title":{"rendered":"Asset Allocation"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"59\" class=\"elementor elementor-59\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4dd51e9e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4dd51e9e\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-47e842bd\" data-id=\"47e842bd\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2fd51158 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2fd51158\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>I believe it is worthwhile to make occasional changes to asset allocation when warranted by changes in the economic and market environment, rather than always holding a fixed asset allocation such as 60% stocks \/ 40% bonds, or remaining fully invested in stocks at all times.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p><p><strong>I disagree with the view that market timing is impossible.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>The figure below shows a long-term monthly chart of FXI, an ETF of Chinese stocks.\u00a0 This asset class had a dramatic rise in the 2005 &#8211; 2007 period, and by October 2007 it had reached a parabolic overbought condition.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Figure 1\u00a0 \u00a0Chinese stocks reached a parabolic overbought condition in 2007<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2945195 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2945195\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-8c16aa4\" data-id=\"8c16aa4\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-466b77c elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"466b77c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/SR-FXI-MONTHLY.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-528\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/SR-FXI-MONTHLY.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/SR-FXI-MONTHLY.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/SR-FXI-MONTHLY.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/SR-FXI-MONTHLY.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-9094ae5 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"9094ae5\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2c9b14c\" data-id=\"2c9b14c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-735f539 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"735f539\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Clearly in October 2007 it made sense to reduce exposure to this asset class, because of its <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">extremely overbought condition<\/span>.\u00a0<br \/><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><br \/>In other situations, asset classes sometimes become <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">extremely oversold, presenting good buying opportunities<\/span>.\u00a0 An example was the U.S. stock market in late December 2018 (see chart below).\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>Obviously no one can predict the market on a day to day basis, but various situations occasionally arise in which <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the risk\/reward position of an asset class<\/span> is tilted in one direction or the other.\u00a0 Such situations may occur only a few times a year, but when they do, it makes sense to take advantage of them and make the appropriate adjustments to asset allocation.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><br \/><\/strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Figure 2\u00a0 \u00a0U.S. stocks became extremely oversold in late 2018<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-118b600 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"118b600\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-bfbcd20\" data-id=\"bfbcd20\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f7dbc4b elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"f7dbc4b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/T2108-vs-NAS-2014-2019-d.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-947\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/T2108-vs-NAS-2014-2019-d.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/T2108-vs-NAS-2014-2019-d.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/T2108-vs-NAS-2014-2019-d.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/T2108-vs-NAS-2014-2019-d.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-e7148b9 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e7148b9\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2760626\" data-id=\"2760626\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-06da198 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"06da198\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>In general, I believe the investment process should include <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">assessing the risk \/ reward condition of various asset classes<\/span> on a regular basis.\u00a0 This can be done with a variety of fundamental, technical, and valuation indicators.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><u>Long-term asset allocation<\/u>:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><ul><li><strong>The U.S. stock market tends to stay in long-term bull markets for years at a time, and during these periods, portfolios should be positioned with a high level of equity exposure (percentages would vary based on client risk tolerance, etc).<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><ul><li><strong>However sometimes market conditions change.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><ul><li><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">I have performed a detailed study of the 2008 stock market crash<\/span>.\u00a0 \u00a0As 2008 unfolded, there were numerous bearish warning signs in place, signaling that the previous bull market had ended and that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">it would be prudent to reduce equity exposure<\/span>.\u00a0 These bearish signals were clear well before the worst part of the market crash, which occurred in late 2008 and early 2009.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><ul><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Reducing equity exposure in such situations can make a major contribution to preserving clients&#8217; wealth.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><p>\u00a0<\/p><\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Based on this type of analysis, I have done a lot of work on building models to analyze market conditions.\u00a0 When combined with other indicators, this approach can make a valuable contribution to the asset allocation decision.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><p>\u00a0<\/p><\/li><li><strong>Please see the article entitled <a href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/long-term-market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&#8220;Long-term Market Analysis&#8221;<\/a> in the \u201cExcerpts from White Papers\u201d section for a more detailed discussion of the 2008 market environment, including charts.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><p><strong><br \/><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Short-term asset allocation<\/span>:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><ul><li><strong>In some situations we can identify market turning points, and we can draw additional conclusions on sector weights and stock selection, all in an integrated way.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><ul><li><b><b><b><b><b><b><b>For example in January 2016, the market experienced a sharp 10% correction, but by mid-February 2016 it was clear that the correction had ended and a new uptrend had begun.<br \/><br \/><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>I have performed detailed studies of market behavior in various time periods, including early 2016.\u00a0<br \/><br \/><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Please see the article entitled <a href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/short-term-market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&#8220;Short-term Market Analysis&#8221;<\/a> in the \u201cExcerpts from White Papers\u201d section for a more detailed discussion of the first quarter of 2016, including charts.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I believe it is worthwhile to make occasional changes to asset allocation when warranted by changes in the economic and market environment, rather than always holding a fixed asset allocation such as 60% stocks \/ 40% bonds, or remaining fully invested in stocks at all times.\u00a0 I disagree with the view that market timing is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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