{"id":1597,"date":"2020-01-18T01:10:29","date_gmt":"2020-01-18T01:10:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/?p=1597"},"modified":"2020-01-18T01:16:40","modified_gmt":"2020-01-18T01:16:40","slug":"monthly-letter-october-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/18\/monthly-letter-october-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Letter October 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Monthly Investment Review — October 2019\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/u><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Nov. 1, 2019<\/u><\/p>

October was a good month for the stock market, as the S&P 500 rose 2.0% while the Nasdaq gained 3.7%.\u00a0 As the month came to a close, the S&P 500 and other major market indices were at or near their all-time highs.\u00a0 In the bond market, yields on ten-year Treasuries were roughly unchanged, ending the month at 1.69%.\u00a0 The main issues affecting the markets during the month were the economy, third quarter earnings reports, Federal Reserve policy, and hopes for a trade deal with China.\u00a0<\/p>

Figure 1\u00a0 S&P 500 index \u2013 Stocks made solid gains in October<\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Economy and Earnings<\/u><\/p>

As October began, stocks sold off sharply for a few days on worries that the U.S. economy might be slowing.\u00a0 Several economic reports were weaker than expected, raising worries that the manufacturing sector is being hurt by tariffs and the trade war with China. \u00a0However as the month progressed, investors were reassured by a number of other reports.\u00a0 The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest since 1969, and the gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a fairly healthy annual rate of 1.9% in the third quarter.\u00a0 On Friday, November 1st<\/sup>, the employment report for October was released, showing a stronger-than-expected gain of 128,000 jobs, and data for the prior two months were revised higher.<\/p>

In general the U.S. is the only bright spot in the global economy. \u00a0Europe and Japan have been weak, while China has been hurt by tariffs and disruptions to global supply chains.\u00a0 Within the U.S. economy, consumer spending is the strongest area, driven by low unemployment and rising wages, whereas capital spending has been hurt by uncertainty over the trade war with China.<\/p>

Corporations began to report third quarter earnings in mid-October, and investors were relieved to see that many of the initial reports were better than expected.\u00a0 Earnings reports and higher guidance from many companies were some of the main factors supporting the market during the month.\u00a0 Although the average earnings increase was only in the mid-single digit range, expectations had also been low, so the modest gains were not a problem.<\/p>

Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rates<\/u><\/p>

The Federal Reserve has dramatically changed policy over the past year.\u00a0 In October 2018, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sparked a stock market selloff with comments suggesting that the Fed was planning to keep short-term interest rates on an upward trajectory.\u00a0 Since then the Fed has changed direction, and has now cut rates three times.\u00a0 This policy change has been driven by a number of factors, including the fact that long-term interest rates have come down sharply, worries about weakness in the global economy, trade uncertainty with China, and evidence that inflation remains very low.<\/p>

In late October the Fed made the third of these interest rate cuts, bringing the Fed funds rate down to the range of 1.50% — 1.75%.\u00a0 Fed Chairman Powell suggested that no more rate cuts are likely in the foreseeable future, saying that the Fed will \u201cassess the appropriate path\u201d for short-term rates based on incoming data.\u00a0 Markets do not expect another rate cut at the Fed\u2019s next meeting in December, although there is some possibility of a rate cut in early 2020.<\/p>

Long-term interest rates have come down sharply this year.\u00a0 The yield on the benchmark ten-year Treasury bond ended 2018 at roughly 2.70%, but fell to the 2.0% level by June 2019, and then plunged in August, hitting a low of 1.43% in early September.\u00a0 Since then the yield has climbed up a bit, reaching 1.69% by the end of October.\u00a0 This is an extremely low level by historic standards, especially given the strength of the U.S. economy.\u00a0 Much of the decline in bond yields can be attributed to the fact that other countries, such as Germany and Japan, have negative interest rates, so by comparison a rate of 2.0% in the U .S. seems attractive to foreign investors.\u00a0<\/p>

The decline in long-term interest rates has led to a situation in which long-term rates fell below short-term rates, a situation known as an inverted yield curve.\u00a0 Earlier this year the inverted yield curve was becoming a big concern for stock market investors, because historically it has been a leading indicator of a recession.\u00a0<\/p>

However, in most of the past cycles over the past 60 years, the inverted yield curve was caused by the Fed raising short-term rates to an abnormally high level in an effort to curb inflationary pressures.\u00a0 In the current environment, inflation remains low and the Fed has been cutting rates, not raising them.\u00a0 Furthermore, long-term yields have become abnormally low due to global forces that were not present in previous cycles, such as negative interest rates in other countries.\u00a0 Thus in our view the inverted yield curve from earlier this year will not lead to a recession.<\/p>

Trade with China<\/u><\/p>

Trade talks between the U.S. and China took place in mid-October.\u00a0 The stock market rose sharply on October 11th<\/sup>, with a gain of 320 points in the Dow Jones Industrials, on news that Phase I of a trade agreement had been reached.\u00a0 Steps were taken to stop the forced transfer of U.S. technology, and China agreed to buy record amounts of U.S. agricultural products, in the range of $40 – $50 billion.\u00a0<\/p>

Tariff increases to 30% which were scheduled to take place on October 15th<\/sup> were cancelled.\u00a0 President Trump said that we are very close to ending the trade war with China, which will be a major positive for the world economy as a whole.\u00a0 The Phase I agreement will be put in writing and is expected to be signed by Presidents Trump and Xi sometime in November.\u00a0<\/p>

Conclusion<\/u><\/p>

As November begins, the market has broken out to new highs, which bodes well for continued gains ahead.\u00a0 The market has now become somewhat overbought on a short-term basis, so a pullback is possible at any time, but we would view such a pullback as a buying opportunity, as the old highs from earlier this year will now become a support level.\u00a0<\/p>

The fundamentals remain generally strong.\u00a0 The U.S. economy remains healthy, inflation remains low, interest rates are low, and the Fed has been easing.\u00a0 The trade deal with China is a positive.<\/p>

From a valuation standpoint, the market is not cheap, but it is not overvalued either. \u00a0Seasonal tendencies are now positive, as the December \u2013 January timeframe is normally a good period for the market.<\/p>

As always, there are a number of risk factors in the environment.\u00a0 One of these is the extremely acrimonious political climate in Washington, involving the impeachment of the President, a rare event in political history.\u00a0 Another is the possibility that the China trade deal could fall through, or that China might renege on the deal at the last moment, which would be a big disappointment to the market.\u00a0 The issue is made more complicated by the recent violence in Hong Kong.<\/p>

However, despite the risk factors, we believe the market outlook remains generally positive, and portfolios are positioned with a higher than average level of equity exposure.<\/p>

Jonathan Strauss, CFA<\/p>

513 \u2013 379 \u2013 2792\u00a0\u00a0 (cell \/ text)<\/p>

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Monthly Investment Review — October 2019\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Nov. 1, 2019 October was a good month for the stock market, as the S&P 500 rose 2.0% while the Nasdaq gained 3.7%.\u00a0 As the month […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-monthly-letters"],"yoast_head":"\nMonthly Letter October 2019 - 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