{"id":1603,"date":"2020-01-18T03:40:51","date_gmt":"2020-01-18T03:40:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/?p=1603"},"modified":"2020-01-18T04:35:24","modified_gmt":"2020-01-18T04:35:24","slug":"market-outlook-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/18\/market-outlook-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Outlook 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Note:\u00a0 this entire blog was started in January 2020.\u00a0 This initial post contains general comments on the 2020 market outlook.\u00a0 More detailed market commentary will be posted in the weeks ahead.<\/p>

For additional information, please see the various articles on investment strategy posted under the headings across the top menu of the blog:<\/p>

The \u201cInvestment Philosophy\u201d section includes brief comments on topics such as asset allocation<\/a> and stock selection<\/a>.\u00a0 (Note:\u00a0 please click highlighted links to go directly to these articles).<\/p>

The \u201cWhy Unique and Valuable\u201d section includes articles such as \u201cA Rule-Based Approach instead of Statistics<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>

The \u201cExcerpts from White Papers\u201d section includes articles such as \u201cInvestment Strategy Case Study<\/a>\u201d which shows an example of market analysis from 2018.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Summary of 2020 Market Outlook<\/u><\/strong><\/p>

Stocks have started the new year with strong gains in the first half of January, as what initially appeared to be a potential crisis with Iran was quickly de-escalated.\u00a0 Economic news has been positive, the historic Phase I trade deal with China has just been signed, and the USMCA deal has just been approved by the Senate.\u00a0<\/p>

Amid this good news, cash from the sidelines is pouring into the market.\u00a0 Seasonal tendencies are very bullish.\u00a0 \u00a0New money usually comes into stocks the beginning of a new year, especially if the market was strong the previous year, as it was in 2019.\u00a0<\/p>

As we look ahead to the remainder of the year, some of the major issues affecting the markets are as follows:<\/p>

Positives:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>

Political and Geopolitical backdrop<\/u>:\u00a0 The markets expect President Trump to be re-elected.\u00a0 Impeachment has had virtually no effect on the markets, as investors realize that the President will not be convicted by the Senate.<\/p>

In general, factors such as strong political leadership in the U.S., reduced threats of terrorism, and a reduction of tensions in the Middle East (as we have seen recently) all contribute to a \u201cRisk On\u201d environment in financial markets, in which risk assets, such as stocks, tend to do well.<\/p>

Trade deals:<\/u>\u00a0\u00a0 The recent trade deals are positive for the U.S. economy and the global economy.\u00a0 The Phase I trade deal with China was signed on January 15th<\/sup>, providing a framework for a whole new era in the U.S. \u2013 China relationship.\u00a0 The deal includes structural reforms on intellectual property theft and technology transfer, along with a dispute resolution process.\u00a0 China will purchase at least $200 billion of U.S. goods over the next two years in the areas of agriculture, services, manufacturing and energy, and the U.S. trade deficit with China should be substantially reduced over time.<\/p>

The USMCA deal was passed with bipartisan support, and should benefit the economies of all three countries in North America.\u00a0 Boris Johnson\u2019s victory in the U.K. raises the chances for a major U.S. \u2013 U.K. trade deal after Brexit is completed.<\/p>

Economy<\/u>:\u00a0 The U.S. economy has been strong, with unemployment at a 50-year low of 3.5%.\u00a0 Real GDP growth for 2020 should be at least 2.0%, and could be closer to 3.0% because the recent trade deals (China and USMCA) are pro-growth, and should result in large increases in U.S. exports.\u00a0 In addition, now that many of the trade issues have been resolved, capital spending may increase, after being held back by trade uncertainty.<\/p>

The economic expansion is likely to continue for several more years, and the chances of a recession are quite low for the foreseeable future.<\/p>

Wages are growing at an annual rate of roughly 3%, and consumer spending is healthy, as evidenced by the strength of the recent holiday shopping season.<\/p>

Inflation remains low despite the strong economy and rising wages.\u00a0 The traditional \u201cPhillips curve\u201d relationship, suggesting that low unemployment should result in high inflation, is no longer valid.<\/p>

The global economy has been weak, but has shown signs of bottoming, amid synchronized monetary easing by the world\u2019s central banks.<\/p>

Federal Reserve policy:<\/u>\u00a0 the Fed cut rates several times last year, bringing the fed funds rate down to its current range of 1.50% — 1.75%.\u00a0<\/p>

Fed funds futures show that investors are expecting no change in rates at the Fed\u2019s next two meetings on January 29th<\/sup> and March 18th<\/sup>.\u00a0 Looking further ahead in 2020, the futures market is pricing in a small chance of a quarter point rate cut, but very little chance of a rate hike.\u00a0 Thus Fed policy is currently friendly to the stock market, and as long as inflation remains under control, the Fed is likely to refrain from raising rates.<\/p>

Interest rates<\/u>:\u00a0 Bond yields very low by historic standards, with the 10-year Treasury yield at only 1.8%.<\/p>

Earnings:<\/u> \u00a0Modest earnings growth is expected this year.\u00a0 The consensus S&P 500 earnings per share estimate for 2020 is $177, a gain of 9.6% from 2019 levels.<\/p>

Technical Position<\/u>:\u00a0<\/p>

As of mid-January 2020, the market has risen steadily from its October 2019 lows, meaning that stocks are becoming overbought on a short-term basis.\u00a0 The recent pace of gains has been driven by new cash flows pouring into the market, but such consistent gains are unsustainable, and a pullback or correction is likely sometime in February or March.\u00a0<\/p>

However, as seen in the following chart, the market\u2019s long-term uptrend remains intact.\u00a0 Based on this chart, the S&P 500 could hit 4,000 or more before it reaches its upper trend channel.\u00a0 This will not necessarily happen within the next 12 months, but should be attainable before this bull market comes to an end.<\/p>

Figure 1\u00a0\u00a0 S&P 500\u00a0 Long-term Monthly Chart —\u00a0 2008 – 2020<\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Risk Factors \/ uncertainties:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>

Political risk<\/u>:\u00a0 Probably the biggest risk factor for the year ahead is political risk.\u00a0 If President Trump is not re-elected, the current administration\u2019s pro-business policies could be replaced by \u00a0policy changes involving major tax hikes, Medicare for all, an end to fracking, etc..\u00a0 Such policy changes would be bad for the economy and very bearish for the markets.<\/p>

However, history shows that the incumbent usually wins re-election if the economy is strong in an election year.\u00a0<\/p>

Trade<\/u>:\u00a0 Despite the success of the recent trade deals, there is still some risk that the next phase of trade negotiations with China may present challenges, and there is still a chance that tariffs may be raised as a negotiating tool.\u00a0<\/p>

Geopolitical<\/u>:\u00a0 Hong Kong protests have subsided, but could resume later in the year, raising issues in the U.S. \u2013 China relationship.\u00a0 Despite the recent cooling of hostilities, Iran remains a wild card.\u00a0 Similarly, North Korea\u2019s denuclearization issues remain unresolved.<\/p>

Inflation \/ Federal Reserve<\/u>:\u00a0 There is some risk that the tight labor market, rising commodity prices, or other factors could cause a pickup in inflation.\u00a0 In this situation, the Fed might start to adopt a tighter monetary policy, which would be bearish for the market.<\/p>

Interest rates<\/u>:\u00a0 Given the strength of the economy, there is a risk that long-term interest rates could rise from their abnormally low levels, especially if global growth picks up and interest rates in other countries start to move higher.<\/p>

Valuation<\/u>:\u00a0 The stock market\u2019s valuation level has now become fairly expensive.\u00a0 The S&P 500 price \/ earnings ratio has risen to more than 20 times trailing earnings.\u00a0 Based on forward earnings, the P\/E is 18.6, at the high end of its historic range and significantly above the 10-year average of 15.<\/p>

Conclusion <\/u><\/strong><\/p>

Looking forward to the year ahead, the U.S. economy is healthy and, given the recent pro-growth trade deals, we expect GDP growth to be in the 2.5% — 3.0% range, with no recession in sight.\u00a0 Earnings growth is now expected to be in the high single digits, but could exceed 10% if GDP growth reaches the 3.0% range.<\/p>

However price \/ earnings ratios are already high, which is likely to limit the market\u2019s upside potential.\u00a0 A major expansion in P\/E ratios occurred in 2019, but is unlikely for 2020.<\/p>

Thus we expect another good year for stock market investors in 2020, but gains are expected to be more modest that the dramatic gains (in the 30% range) that we saw in 2019.<\/p>

For more information please contact Jonathan Strauss, CFA:<\/p>

jon@straussresearch.com<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Note:\u00a0 this entire blog was started in January 2020.\u00a0 This initial post contains general comments on the 2020 market outlook.\u00a0 More detailed market commentary will be posted in the weeks ahead. 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