{"id":1638,"date":"2020-01-24T19:24:22","date_gmt":"2020-01-24T19:24:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/?p=1638"},"modified":"2020-01-25T01:28:39","modified_gmt":"2020-01-25T01:28:39","slug":"review-of-stock-market-and-sectors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/24\/review-of-stock-market-and-sectors\/","title":{"rendered":"Review of Stock Market and Sectors"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"1638\" class=\"elementor elementor-1638\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-b6cfb01 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"b6cfb01\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-91051ad\" data-id=\"91051ad\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3406382 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3406382\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Note: the previous blog post (Market Outlook 2020) discussed the major political, geopolitical and economic issues currently influencing the market.<\/p><p>Instead of reiterating these topics, this comment will go directly to a discussion of market conditions and sectors.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a7e62c2 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a7e62c2\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-0207b5f\" data-id=\"0207b5f\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-047fb34 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"047fb34\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong><u>Market Strategy Review<\/u><\/strong><\/p><p>Note:\u00a0 the following summary covers the current status of the U.S. stock market, by reviewing a checklist of key indicators.\u00a0<\/p><p><strong><u>Price \/ Volume activity<\/u><\/strong><\/p><p>The market uptrend that has unfolded over the past three months remains strong, with very few signs of institutional selling, until the notable decline on Friday, January 24th.\u00a0 Money flow indicators remain positive and there have been only a few distribution days in the past month.\u00a0 (Note:\u00a0 a distribution day is basically a day with a sharp selloff on big volume.\u00a0 Keeping track of such days is a technique developed by <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Investor\u2019s Business Daily<\/span> to monitor the market&#8217;s health.\u00a0 More than six or seven of these days within a month is a bearish sign for the market.)<\/p><p><strong><u>Behavior of Leading Stocks\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p><p>A review of leading stocks shows that most have relatively strong technical positions and are not showing signs of peaking.\u00a0 In fact some have just broken out to new highs, a bullish sign.<\/p><p><strong><u>Breadth \/ Divergences <\/u><\/strong><\/p><p>The Advance \/ Decline line has been in an uptrend and other breadth indicators have been generally positive.\u00a0 However, as these comments are being posted on 1\/24\/20 , some breadth indicators are down sharply for the day, indicating increased risk that a market pullback could be starting.<\/p><p><strong><u>Overbought \/ Oversold <\/u><\/strong><\/p><p>The market is overbought on a short-term basis, having risen steadily for the past 3 months.\u00a0 From its October 2019 lows to 1\/17\/20, the S&amp;P 500 advanced by more than 16%.\u00a0<\/p><p>Based on favorable seasonal tendencies, stocks could keep rising for another month or so, as money pours into the stock market following the strong gains that we saw in calendar year 2019.\u00a0<\/p><p>However, given the market\u2019s current overbought condition, the near-term outlook depends on news events.\u00a0 If the global macro news remains benign, the recent uptrend could continue.\u00a0\u00a0But any major worrisome geopolitical news, such as renewed conflict in the Middle East, or the news that has just emerged in the last few days regarding a deadly virus in China, could spark a round of profit-taking.\u00a0<\/p><p>Thus there is a possibility that a 5% &#8211; 10% correction could unfold in the next few weeks or so.\u00a0 After a strong advance in January 2018, stocks plunged into a 10% correction in February 2018, with very little warning except for the fact that the market had become overbought.<\/p><p><strong><u>Support \/ Resistance <\/u><\/strong><\/p><p>As the market is near all-time highs (roughly 3,330 on the S&amp;P 500), it faces no technical resistance levels, but its overbought condition is still worrisome.<\/p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has support at various levels such as its 50-day moving average, which is now around 3195, and the 38% Fibonacci retracement of its recent move, which is around 3160.\u00a0 A pullback to these levels would be a 4% &#8211; 5% decline.\u00a0\u00a0In a sharp selloff (e.g. February 2018), the market could drop to its 200-day moving average, which is currently very close to the 3,000 level, a decline of roughly 10% (see chart below).<\/p><p>However, after the strong move of the past three months, any pullback is likely to be followed by another rally, because many investors will probably view the pullback as a chance to get into the market.<\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Figure 1\u00a0 \u00a0S&amp;P 500 daily chart &#8212; late 2019 thru 1\/24\/20<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-0026cc8 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"0026cc8\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1ca8253\" data-id=\"1ca8253\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e9db2de elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"e9db2de\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/SPX-D-012420-B.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1683\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/SPX-D-012420-B.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/SPX-D-012420-B.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/SPX-D-012420-B.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/SPX-D-012420-B.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-827a091 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"827a091\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-04d9a2c\" data-id=\"04d9a2c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9e2fe83 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9e2fe83\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong><u>Sentiment:<\/u><\/strong><\/p><p>Investors Intelligence survey &#8212; Percentage of Bulls roughly 57%, Bears only 18% &#8212; not an extreme level, but shows a fairly high degree of optimism or complacency, which is bearish from a contrarian standpoint.<\/p><p>VIX &#8212;\u00a0 Over the past week, the VIX has risen from 12 to 14.6, which could be considered a worrisome development.<\/p><p>Put \/ Call ratio\u00a0 \u00a0(Above 1.20 shows excessive pessimism, which is bullish.\u00a0 Below 0.60 shows excessive optimism, which is bearish.)\u00a0 \u00a0Currently 1.01 \u2013 not showing enough pessimism for a bottom (implying the risk of more downside).<\/p><p><strong><u>Conclusion:\u00a0 Asset Allocation<\/u><\/strong><\/p><p>Based on the strong economy, low interest rates, and other factors, we consider the market to be in a long-term bull market, but overbought on a short-term basis.\u00a0 This leads to the conclusion that asset allocation should be at a fairly high level of 70%, as highlighted in the following diagram.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7672f94 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7672f94\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d71e686\" data-id=\"d71e686\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fbd4eab elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"fbd4eab\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"796\" height=\"549\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/AA-Matrix.jpg?fit=796%2C549&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1704\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/AA-Matrix.jpg?w=796&amp;ssl=1 796w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/AA-Matrix.jpg?resize=300%2C207&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/AA-Matrix.jpg?resize=768%2C530&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 796px) 100vw, 796px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-395548a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"395548a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-dbc524e\" data-id=\"dbc524e\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6c68911 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6c68911\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><br \/>Sectors:<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p>One valuable way to analyze sector rotation is to study <u>trends in relative strength<\/u>.\u00a0 Relative strength is one of the best technical indicators.<\/p><p>In general, we want to be <u>overweighted in the sectors whose relative strength is in an uptrend<\/u>, and underweighted in the sectors whose relative strength is in a downtrend.<\/p><p><strong><u>Current Sector Trends in Relative Strength<\/u><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><u>Uptrends:<\/u><\/strong>\u00a0 Health Care, Technology<\/p><p><u>Figure 2\u00a0 \u00a0Technology sector \u2013 weekly chart &#8212; has been outperforming<\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-004a2a2 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"004a2a2\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-dcb2ad0\" data-id=\"dcb2ad0\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-68dd576 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"68dd576\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XLK-RS-W-Jan2020.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1652\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XLK-RS-W-Jan2020.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XLK-RS-W-Jan2020.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XLK-RS-W-Jan2020.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XLK-RS-W-Jan2020.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-8f099ba elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"8f099ba\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-e8e8922\" data-id=\"e8e8922\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-469c5c4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"469c5c4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>(Note:\u00a0 the Relative Strength line at the top of these charts shows the performance of the sector relative to the S&amp;P 500.\u00a0 When this line is rising, it means the sector is outperforming the market, and when the line is falling, it means the sector is underperforming.)<\/p><p><strong><u>Downtrends<\/u>:\u00a0 <\/strong>Basic Materials,\u00a0Energy<\/p><p><u>Figure 3\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Energy sector \u2013 weekly chart &#8212; has been underperforming<\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-cd32ac3 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"cd32ac3\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d57e0fb\" data-id=\"d57e0fb\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-978a491 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"978a491\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XLE-RS-W-Jan2020.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1657\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XLE-RS-W-Jan2020.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XLE-RS-W-Jan2020.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XLE-RS-W-Jan2020.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/XLE-RS-W-Jan2020.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-89aed22 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"89aed22\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7cf8e50\" data-id=\"7cf8e50\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fbedee1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fbedee1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>From a contrarian viewpoint, the charts shown above suggest that we should sell technology stocks and replace them with energy stocks.\u00a0 However, this analysis is oversimplified, because trends in relative strength can persist for a long time.\u00a0 Before committing to such a move, we would want to see more evidence of a major peak in technology stocks, along with evidence that energy stocks have formed a bottom.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p><p>Thus at this time we would be overweighted in the technology sector, and underweighted in the energy sector.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-ede7dad elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"ede7dad\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-146b307\" data-id=\"146b307\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e1ce763 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e1ce763\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Observations on sectors and industry groups:<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><u>Basic materials<\/u>:\u00a0 the sector has been lagging, with a few exceptions such as\u00a0 building materials and lumber.<\/p><p><u>Industrials<\/u>:\u00a0 relative strength has been flat to down, with the exception of a few groups such as business services.<\/p><p><u>Energy<\/u>:\u00a0 as shown above, the energy sector has been lagging for some time.<\/p><p><u>Consumer cyclicals<\/u>:\u00a0 ETFs of this sector, such as XLY, are generally dominated by Amazon.com (AMZN) which has a market cap of over $900 billion.\u00a0 XLY has performed in-line with the market over the last two years, similar to the performance of AMZN.\u00a0 However, other stocks in the sector have been outperforming, such as Starbucks (SBUX) and Target (TGT).<\/p><p><u>Consumer staples:<\/u> \u00a0have generally lagged the market\u2019s latest rally over the past few months<\/p><p><u>Health care:<\/u> \u00a0presents a mixed picture, as some industries have been strong, such as diagnostics and research, while others have been weak, such as generic drugs.\u00a0 Biotechnology has made a notable rally in the past few months.<\/p><p><u>Financials:<\/u> \u00a0have had generally flat relative strength (performing in-line with the market), but a few areas have been very strong such as credit services (Visa, Mastercard, etc.) which have just broken out to new highs and have very good chart patterns and good fundamentals.<\/p><p><u>Technology:<\/u> \u00a0contains several attractive areas.\u00a0 The technology ETFs such as XLK have been very strong, but this is a bit deceptive, as they have been heavily influenced by the extraordinary strength in giant names such as Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), while some areas of technology have actually been rather weak, such as communications equipment and computer systems.\u00a0<\/p><p><u>Figure 4\u00a0 \u00a0 AAPL\u2019s relative strength line has become parabolic overbought <\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-9d4439e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"9d4439e\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5c28f77\" data-id=\"5c28f77\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-86c9328 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"86c9328\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/AAPL-RS-D-Jan2020.png?fit=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1667\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/AAPL-RS-D-Jan2020.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/AAPL-RS-D-Jan2020.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/AAPL-RS-D-Jan2020.png?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/AAPL-RS-D-Jan2020.png?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-dcae648 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"dcae648\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c8655d6\" data-id=\"c8655d6\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fcf239d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fcf239d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Based on this chart, if we own a large position in AAPL, this would be a good time to take some defensive action, such as selling covered calls on the stock, or placing a stop loss on a partial position to lock in some gains, while continuing to maintain another position as a long-term core holding.\u00a0 AAPL\u2019s 50-day (10-week) moving average is currently around $290, and a pullback to that level would be perfectly normal.<\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My work shows that the most attractive groups within the technology sector are<\/span>:<\/p><ul><li>Electronic gaming<\/li><li>Health information services<\/li><li>Semiconductor equipment<\/li><li>Semiconductors<\/li><li>Software &#8212; application<\/li><\/ul><p>This is based on the following data:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p><p><u>Figure 5\u00a0 \u00a0Summary of Technical and Fundamental data for groups within the Technology sector (as of 1\/17\/20)<\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-837043f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"837043f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-bdd3d6c\" data-id=\"bdd3d6c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3db44c0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"3db44c0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"459\" height=\"708\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Tech-groups-011729.jpg?fit=459%2C708&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1671\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Tech-groups-011729.jpg?w=459&amp;ssl=1 459w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Tech-groups-011729.jpg?resize=194%2C300&amp;ssl=1 194w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 459px) 100vw, 459px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-99894af elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"99894af\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b43cbe0\" data-id=\"b43cbe0\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c0796bd elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c0796bd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>This data is from a weekly spreadsheet covering over 1,100 stocks and ETFs.\u00a0 It summarizes both technical and fundamental data.\u00a0 Bullish technical developments include breakouts to new highs, improving money flow, etc.\u00a0 Bearish developments include weak relative strength, weak money flow, etc.)\u00a0<\/p><p>The fundamental data is from a proven quantitative stock selection model based on factors such as earnings growth and earnings estimate revisions.\u00a0 \u00a0The columns above show the net total of bullish data minus bearish data.<\/p><p>This type of analysis often provides <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">valuable insights into what is going on beneath the surface of the market<\/span>.\u00a0<\/p><p>For example we can see that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the semiconductor equipment stocks have been forming a lot of bullish technical signals, and also have bullish fundamentals<\/span>.\u00a0<\/p><p>Then we can drill down to the level of individual stocks and find the best stocks within these groups.\u00a0 <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">The next blog post will show specific stock picks from the strongest groups in the market, based on both fundamental and technical data.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Note: the previous blog post (Market Outlook 2020) discussed the major political, geopolitical and economic issues currently influencing the market. Instead of reiterating these topics, this comment will go directly to a discussion of market conditions and sectors. Market Strategy Review Note:\u00a0 the following summary covers the current status of the U.S. stock market, by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-comments"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Review of Stock Market and Sectors - Strauss Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/24\/review-of-stock-market-and-sectors\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Review of Stock Market and Sectors - Strauss Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Note: the previous blog post (Market Outlook 2020) discussed the major political, geopolitical and economic issues currently influencing the market. 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Instead of reiterating these topics, this comment will go directly to a discussion of market conditions and sectors. Market Strategy Review Note:\u00a0 the following summary covers the current status of the U.S. stock market, by [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/24\/review-of-stock-market-and-sectors\/","og_site_name":"Strauss Research","article_published_time":"2020-01-24T19:24:22+00:00","article_modified_time":"2020-01-25T01:28:39+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/SPX-D-012420-B-1024x725.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Jon Strauss","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jon Strauss","Est. reading time":"7 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/24\/review-of-stock-market-and-sectors\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/24\/review-of-stock-market-and-sectors\/"},"author":{"name":"Jon Strauss","@id":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/#\/schema\/person\/fbcf8b9c67143127e8da9d24bd06fc08"},"headline":"Review of Stock Market and Sectors","datePublished":"2020-01-24T19:24:22+00:00","dateModified":"2020-01-25T01:28:39+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/24\/review-of-stock-market-and-sectors\/"},"wordCount":1480,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/#\/schema\/person\/fbcf8b9c67143127e8da9d24bd06fc08"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/24\/review-of-stock-market-and-sectors\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/SPX-D-012420-B-1024x725.png","articleSection":["Market Comments"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/24\/review-of-stock-market-and-sectors\/","url":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/24\/review-of-stock-market-and-sectors\/","name":"Review of Stock Market and Sectors - 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