{"id":1743,"date":"2020-02-03T23:51:08","date_gmt":"2020-02-03T23:51:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/?p=1743"},"modified":"2020-02-04T00:11:19","modified_gmt":"2020-02-04T00:11:19","slug":"monthly-letter-january-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/03\/monthly-letter-january-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Letter January 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Monthly Investment Review — January 2020\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/u><\/strong> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Feb. 3, 2020<\/u><\/p>

The stock market was roughly flat in January, as gains made in the first half of the month were offset by price declines in the second half, amid growing concerns over the outbreak of the deadly coronavirus in China.\u00a0 \u00a0For the month as a whole, the S&P 500 declined by -0.2%, while the Nasdaq rose 2.0%.\u00a0<\/p>

Bond prices made significant gains for the month, as the yield on ten-year Treasuries declined from 1.92% to 1.52%.\u00a0 In fact bonds outperformed stocks in January, as some long-term bond funds advanced by 7.0% or more for the month.\u00a0 The price of oil dropped sharply, falling from roughly $61 to $52 a barrel, due to worries about a slowdown in travel and a potential slowdown in the global economy from the virus.\u00a0<\/p>

Figure 1\u00a0 S&P 500 index \u2013 Stocks were roughly flat in January 2020<\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Other major issues affecting the markets in early 2020 included tensions with Iran, the completion of major trade deals, strong economic data, and fourth quarter earnings reports.<\/p>

Tensions with Iran<\/u><\/p>

As the year began, markets were rattled by news that a U.S. airstrike had killed a top Iranian general in Iraq, after an attack on the U.S. embassy.\u00a0 This led to worries about retaliation by Iran and an escalation in U.S. \u2013 Iran tensions which could possibly lead to war.\u00a0 On the evening of January 7th<\/sup>, Iran fired missiles at bases in Iraq which housed U.S. troops, but there were no casualties.\u00a0 President Trump made a television address which served to de-escalate the situation, as the U.S. increased economic sanctions on Iran, but did not take any additional military action.\u00a0 With the risk of war greatly reduced, investors breathed a sigh of relief, paving the way for the market to climb higher into mid-January.<\/p>

Trade Deals Completed<\/u><\/p>

On January 15th<\/sup>, Phase I of a U.S. \u2013 China trade deal was signed in a ceremony at the White House.\u00a0 This was a historic deal which may provide a framework for a new, more positive relationship between the U.S. and China, as it should lead to increased trade and investment between the world\u2019s two largest economies.\u00a0<\/p>

The deal includes plans for China to buy an additional $200 billion of U.S. goods over the next two years, including $40 – $50 billion in agricultural products.\u00a0 Over time, the deal should lead to a substantial reduction in the U.S. trade deficit with China.\u00a0 China also made substantial commitments to stop the theft of U.S. intellectual property and the forced transfer of technology, and the deal includes a fully enforceable dispute resolution process.\u00a0 Some tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced, but tariffs remain in place on other products, giving the U.S. leverage in the Phase II negotiations.\u00a0<\/p>

Shortly after the China deal was signed, the Senate passed the U.S. \u2013 Mexico \u2013 Canada Agreement (USMCA) with strong bipartisan support, replacing the old NAFTA trade deal.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The net result of these trade deals should be more job creation in the U.S. and an increase in U.S. economic growth.\u00a0 The two trade deals could bring the growth rate of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) up from its recent 2.0% range closer to the 3.0% range for 2020.<\/p>

Now that these trade deals have been completed, the Trump administration\u2019s trade team will focus on negotiating with Europe and the U.K.\u00a0 A new trade agreement with the U.K. is likely following Brexit, which was completed as January came to a close.\u00a0<\/p>

On another note, the President\u2019s impeachment trial took place in the Senate in the second half of January, but as the month ended, the outcome appeared to be that the President would be acquitted in early February, and the proceedings had little or no impact on the markets.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Economy and Earnings<\/u><\/p>

Economic reports in January were generally strong.\u00a0 The ADP jobs report released on January 8th<\/sup> showed a gain of 202,000 private sector jobs, the unemployment rate remained extremely low at 3.5%, and a report released in mid-January showed that retail sales for the 2019 holiday season were up 4.1% from the prior year, a sign of robust consumer spending.\u00a0 Consumer confidence was very strong and housing starts rose to their highest pace since 2006.\u00a0 Preliminary data showed that fourth quarter GDP growth was 2.1%, while inflation remained very low.<\/p>

Corporate earnings reports for the fourth quarter began in mid-January, and generally have been stronger than expected.\u00a0 Of the companies that have reported earnings so far, more than 70% were above expectations.\u00a0 Stocks with notably strong earnings reports included Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and electric car maker Tesla (TSLA).<\/p>

Coronavirus in China<\/u><\/p>

As mentioned above, the outbreak of the virus caused a market selloff in late January.\u00a0 On Monday, January 27th<\/sup>, the Dow Jones Industrials fell by over 400 points, on news that the virus was spreading rapidly and had already caused roughly 100 deaths and thousands of illnesses in China.<\/p>

Then on Friday, January 31st<\/sup>, stocks plunged again, with the Dow down by more than 600 points, as the virus outbreak became a more serious problem with global implications.\u00a0 The U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services declared that the virus presents a public health emergency in the U.S., following an earlier declaration from the World Health Organization stating that the outbreak was a global health emergency.\u00a0<\/p>

The director of the Centers for Disease Control said that the risk to the U.S. public is low, but the federal government will need to take action to keep the virus under control, and will respond to the public health crisis with coordinated action by multiple government agencies. Travel restrictions were put in place and anyone returning to the U.S. from China will be subject to a mandatory 14-day quarantine.\u00a0<\/p>

Conclusion<\/u><\/p>

The coronavirus has created a cloud of uncertainty over global financial markets.\u00a0 The virus is already affecting China\u2019s economy and could have an impact on the global economy.\u00a0 The situation has caused a move toward a \u201crisk off\u201d environment (stocks under pressure, while bonds benefit from a flight to safety).\u00a0 However the virus is not the only issue affecting the stock market, and other factors are generally positive.\u00a0 The U.S. economy remains strong, recent earnings reports were above expectations, inflation remains low, and interest rates are very low.<\/p>

As seen in the chart above, the S&P 500 made very strong gains over a period of almost four months, beginning in early October 2019.\u00a0 Therefore by mid-January it was quite overbought and overdue for a pullback.\u00a0 In late January it dropped by roughly 3% – 4%, but a deeper pullback is possible, especially if the public health crisis worsens.\u00a0<\/p>

Thus at this time we are adopting a cautious policy and will continue to assess the situation as news unfolds.\u00a0 Given the strength of the economic fundamentals, our long-term market outlook remains positive, and in general, we believe that market corrections will turn out to be buying opportunities.<\/p>

Jonathan Strauss, CFA\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

jon@straussresearch.com<\/p>

513 \u2013 379 \u2013 2792\u00a0\u00a0 (cell \/ text)<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Monthly Investment Review — January 2020\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Feb. 3, 2020 The stock market was roughly flat in January, as gains made in the first half of the month were offset by […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-monthly-letters"],"yoast_head":"\nMonthly Letter January 2020 - 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