{"id":1863,"date":"2020-03-03T06:09:47","date_gmt":"2020-03-03T06:09:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/?p=1863"},"modified":"2020-03-03T07:26:52","modified_gmt":"2020-03-03T07:26:52","slug":"monthly-letter-february-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/03\/monthly-letter-february-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Letter February 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Monthly Investment Review — February 2020\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/u><\/strong>\u00a0March 2, 2020<\/u><\/p>

February was a dramatic month for financial markets, as the surprisingly rapid spread of the coronavirus across the world led to fears of a global pandemic.\u00a0 In the last week of February, the U.S. stock market experienced one of its sharpest selloffs in history, with a one-week decline of -11.5% in the S&P 500 index.\u00a0 From its peak in mid-February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by roughly 4,000 points, closing the month in the 25,500 range. \u00a0For February as a whole, the S&P 500 declined by -8.4% while the Nasdaq fell -6.4%. \u00a0Year-to-date, for the first two months of the year, the S&P 500 showed a price decline of -8.6%.\u00a0<\/p>

The spread of the virus has led to widespread concern about a slowdown in the global economy, disruptions to global supply chains, and weak corporate earnings growth for at least the next few quarters.\u00a0 The extent of the stock market selloff can be seen in the following chart.\u00a0<\/p>

Figure 1\u00a0 \u00a0The S&P 500 index plunged in late February 2020 in a dramatic selloff<\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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As stocks plummeted, investors flocked into U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven (see Figure 2 below).\u00a0 The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond fell from 1.52% at the end of January to a record low of 1.13% at the end of February.\u00a0 The 30-year Treasury bond yield fell to an all-time low of 1.67%.\u00a0 Oil prices dropped sharply to $45 a barrel, and airline stocks plunged, amid forecasts of a major reduction in global travel and a slower economy.<\/p>

Economic and Political Developments<\/u><\/p>

Economic reports were generally strong in February, enabling the market to climb higher for the first three weeks of the month.\u00a0 The ISM manufacturing report was above estimates and the monthly employment report showed a strong gain of 225,000 jobs.\u00a0 Building permits and housing starts were very strong, reflecting a booming housing market, and consumer sentiment also had a good reading.\u00a0<\/p>

Political news was also favorable for the market.\u00a0 In general, many investors believe that a continuation of the current administration\u2019s policies would be good for the economy and the market, whereas any move toward socialism would be very negative.\u00a0 Therefore the market was encouraged in early February by the President\u2019s State of the Union address and the fact that he was acquitted by the Senate in his impeachment trial.\u00a0 In addition, Gallup polls showed that large majorities of the population are happy with the state of the economy and are satisfied with their own personal economic situations.\u00a0<\/p>

Thus, in mid-February, investors were becoming increasingly confident that the economic outlook was bright and that the President would be re-elected, and the stock market climbed to record highs.<\/p>

Coronavirus Situation Becomes a Crisis<\/u><\/p>

News of the virus outbreak in China first began to affect the markets in late January.\u00a0 The Dow dropped by 600 points on January 31st<\/sup>, as the virus started to spread beyond China, and the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services declared that the situation presents a public health emergency in the U.S.\u00a0<\/p>

In the first three weeks of February, the number of cases increased each day, and the disease gradually spread to various countries around the world.\u00a0 However, investors were essentially \u201clooking through\u201d the issue, assuming that it would be brought under control within a month or two, and that it would be mostly contained within Asia.\u00a0 Market analysts commented that similar public health crises in the past, such as the SARS virus, did not cause any major economic damage, and noted that the stock market was usually higher six months after these other virus outbreaks.\u00a0<\/p>

However on Monday, February 24th<\/sup>, news emerged that the coronavirus had now spread to several additional countries, including Iran and Italy.\u00a0 In Italy over 150 people were already infected and six dead, raising the prospect that the virus would soon spread throughout Europe.\u00a0 This news proved to be the tipping point, as investors could no longer ignore the issue and had to acknowledge that the situation was a major problem which could affect the entire global economy.\u00a0 The stock market plunged, with the Dow down over 1,000 points that day.<\/p>

The market continued to plunge throughout the last week of February as the virus news took center stage.\u00a0 The Centers for Disease Control stated that the American public should be prepared for a possible sustained outbreak of the virus, and public health officials briefed Congress on the situation.\u00a0 A new case of the virus was identified in California, with no known cause, raising the issue of \u201ccommunity spread,\u201d or general transmission of the virus with no clear explanation of the source.\u00a0<\/p>

Schools were closed in Japan and France\u2019s President Macron warned of an epidemic in that country.\u00a0 Major investment firms such as Goldman Sachs lowered their forecasts for GDP growth, and large multinational corporations such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) began to warn that their earnings would be reduced because of the virus.\u00a0<\/p>

Thus by late February, the spread of the coronavirus had created massive uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy.\u00a0 The situation has thrown a monkey wrench into all economic forecasts and earnings projections for the year ahead.\u00a0 Travel and tourism will be the areas hit hardest initially, but in general, many people may be more likely to stay at home, and may refrain from going shopping, going to restaurants or attending large public gatherings.\u00a0<\/p>

Disruptions to global supply chains, most notably from China, are likely to impact supplies of parts and components in many industries.\u00a0 Depending on how long the virus lasts, many more companies may need to cut their guidance, and earnings expectations for the next few quarters may need to be revised down.<\/p>

Government Policy Response\u00a0 <\/u><\/p>

The U.S. government has taken various actions to address the situation.\u00a0 Administration officials have tried to reassure the public that the overall risk is low and there is no reason to panic.\u00a0 Vice President Mike Pence is leading a task force to deal with the virus outbreak and coordinate the actions of various government agencies.\u00a0 Several companies report that they have already made progress toward finding a vaccine.<\/p>

In addition many governments are planning to provide fiscal and monetary stimulus to address the economic slowdown.\u00a0 China and Hong Kong have already taken measures to stimulate their economies.\u00a0 In the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in late February that the Fed will act as appropriate to support the economy, and investors now fully expect that the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting later in March.\u00a0 In fact this action by the Fed is expected to be part of a coordinated global stimulus effort in conjunction with other central banks.<\/p>

Two other factors should also be supportive of the U.S. economy.\u00a0 The bond market rally has led to very low interest rates in the U.S., which could lead to a wave of mortgage refinancing activity, and lower oil prices mean lower gasoline prices, a factor which puts extra spending money into the pockets of consumers.\u00a0<\/p>

Figure 2\u00a0 \u00a0 Long-term bond prices have risen sharply<\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Technical Position of Markets<\/u><\/p>

By the end of February, stock and bond markets had reached extreme positions.\u00a0 As seen in the two charts above, bond prices have gone up so rapidly that they reached a very overbought condition, while stocks reached an extremely oversold level.\u00a0 Therefore the logical conclusion is to take some profits in bonds, and reinvest the proceeds in stocks.\u00a0<\/p>

A variety of indicators suggest that the stock market made a short-term low on February 28th<\/sup>.\u00a0 For example the put-call ratio hit an abnormally high level of 1.26, and the volatility index (VIX) spiked to almost 50, a level that has been associated with market bottoms in the past.\u00a0<\/p>

However we do not believe that the market will make a full recovery back to the mid-February highs any time soon.\u00a0 Any initial rally is likely to be met with renewed selling pressure, and stocks are likely to go through a volatile period in the months ahead.<\/p>

Conclusion<\/u><\/p>

At this point the market outlook is subject to a much higher level of uncertainty than usual.\u00a0 News regarding the virus and its effects on the economy could have a major impact on the market, in either direction.\u00a0<\/p>

Thus we are remaining vigilant as we await more clarity on the virus situation, and we will make adjustments to portfolios as warranted by market developments.\u00a0<\/p>

Jonathan Strauss, CFA<\/p>

513 \u2013 379 \u2013 2792<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Monthly Investment Review — February 2020\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0March 2, 2020 February was a dramatic month for financial markets, as the surprisingly rapid spread of the coronavirus across the world led to fears of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-monthly-letters"],"yoast_head":"\nMonthly Letter February 2020 - Strauss Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/03\/monthly-letter-february-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monthly Letter February 2020 - Strauss Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Monthly Investment Review — February 2020\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0March 2, 2020 February was a dramatic month for financial markets, as the surprisingly rapid spread of the coronavirus across the world led to fears of […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/03\/monthly-letter-february-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Strauss Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-03-03T06:09:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-03-03T07:26:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/SPX-D-Feb28-2020-b-1024x725.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jon Strauss\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jon Strauss\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/03\\\/monthly-letter-february-2020\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/03\\\/monthly-letter-february-2020\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jon Strauss\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/fbcf8b9c67143127e8da9d24bd06fc08\"},\"headline\":\"Monthly Letter February 2020\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-03-03T06:09:47+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-03-03T07:26:52+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/03\\\/monthly-letter-february-2020\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1411,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/fbcf8b9c67143127e8da9d24bd06fc08\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/03\\\/monthly-letter-february-2020\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/SPX-D-Feb28-2020-b-1024x725.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Monthly Letters\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/03\\\/monthly-letter-february-2020\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/03\\\/monthly-letter-february-2020\\\/\",\"name\":\"Monthly Letter February 2020 - 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