{"id":2106,"date":"2020-08-07T18:52:05","date_gmt":"2020-08-07T18:52:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/?p=2106"},"modified":"2020-08-07T19:10:54","modified_gmt":"2020-08-07T19:10:54","slug":"monthly-letter-july-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/07\/monthly-letter-july-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Letter July 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Monthly Investment Review \u2013 July 2020\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/u><\/strong>\u00a0August 4, 2020<\/u><\/p>

After a modest pullback in June, the stock market continued its recent uptrend in July (see chart below).\u00a0 The S&P 500 gained 5.5% in July, while the Nasdaq rose 6.8%, driven by strength in stocks such as Facebook, Apple, and Amazon.\u00a0 Year-to-date for the first seven months of the year, the S&P 500 shows a small gain of 1.2%, while the Nasdaq has made a remarkable year-to-date gain of 19.8%, despite the historic selloff in March.\u00a0 However the small cap Russell 2000 index shows a year-to-date decline of roughly -11%.\u00a0<\/p>

Among other asset classes, bonds and gold have been very strong this year.\u00a0 The long-term Treasury bond iShares (TLT) have risen by more than 26% so far this year, while the price of gold has climbed almost 30%.\u00a0 Bond prices made a small advance in July as the yield on ten year U.S. Treasuries fell to 0.54%.\u00a0 The dollar declined and the price of gold made a sharp one month gain of more than 10%, nearing $2,000 an ounce.<\/p>

The main factors affecting the markets during the month were the economy and earnings, hopes for more government stimulus, and optimism on a virus vaccine.<\/p>

Figure 1\u00a0 \u00a0The S&P 500 index for the first seven months of 2020<\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Economy and Earnings<\/u><\/p>

The government reported that the gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of U.S. economic activity, declined at an annual rate of -32.9% in the second quarter, the sharpest quarterly drop in many decades.\u00a0 However this is backward-looking data, and more forward-looking indicators from June and July suggested that the economy may still make a strong recovery in the second half of this year.<\/p>

The monthly employment report for June, released in early July, was much stronger than expected, showing a gain of 4.8 million jobs, and the employment report for July will be released in early August.\u00a0 The ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.6 in June, up from 43.1 in May, while the ISM services index rose to 57.1, far above estimates and up from 45.4 in May.\u00a0 June retail sales were stronger than expected with a gain of 7.5%, while industrial production rose by 5.4%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

In addition, the homebuilding sector has been a bright spot in the economy, and has not been hurt by the virus.\u00a0 Recent data on mortgage applications, new home sales and housing starts have been very strong, driven by low interest rates.\u00a0 The interest rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages recently fell below 3.0% to a record low.\u00a0 Refinancing activity has also been strong.\u00a0<\/p>

Second quarter corporate earnings were reported throughout July, and due to the historic downturn in the economy, expectations were very low.\u00a0 Many companies did report weak earnings, but roughly 80% of the reports were better than consensus estimates.\u00a0 As July came to a close, some of the biggest stocks in the market, including Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), reported results that were much stronger than expected, and the stocks rose sharply.<\/p>

More Government Stimulus<\/u><\/p>

As the number of virus cases has continued to grow in certain parts of the country, various states imposed rules and regulations on wearing masks and keeping businesses closed.\u00a0 In general, the persistence of the virus across the country has led to worries about the economic recovery stalling.\u00a0<\/p>

Therefore both Congress and the White House agreed on the need for another fiscal stimulus package to help support the economy.\u00a0 As July came to an end, negotiations on a Phase 4 stimulus package were still continuing in Washington, and the markets awaited news on the shape of the package. \u00a0In general, any signs of progress on the stimulus bill were viewed favorably by the markets.<\/p>


Hopes for a Vaccine<\/u><\/p>

One of the most encouraging developments for the market in July was progress on vaccines for the virus.\u00a0 Most of the recent news on this front has been positive. Major pharmaceutical companies involved in vaccine research include Novavax (NVAX), Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX), and AstraZeneca (AZN).\u00a0<\/p>

Most of these firms have received large government contracts for vaccine development and production.\u00a0 In early July Novavax received $1.6 billion in government financing for a vaccine, with the goal of having 100 million doses available by the end of the year.\u00a0 In mid-July Moderna announced that its vaccine looked very promising, as all 45 participants in a trial study produced antibodies.\u00a0 Pfizer and BioNTech also announced positive results from their vaccine study, and AstraZeneca reported good news as well.<\/p>

Some of the vaccine candidates are now entering Phase 3 trials, and there is hope that several hundred million doses of a vaccine can be produced and distributed by early 2021, or possibly even before the end of this year.<\/p>


Geopolitical Developments<\/u><\/p>

In recent months tensions have continued to build between the U.S. and China.\u00a0 The Trump administration has been taking steps to hold China accountable for the virus pandemic.\u00a0 The President ruled out a Phase 2 trade deal, and the U.S. pulled out of the World Health Organization.<\/p>

In mid-July the President signed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, which placed sanctions on Chinese officials because of China\u2019s takeover of Hong Kong, and the administration also ended a longstanding policy which gave special status to Hong Kong.\u00a0 Taiwan said that China has been invading its airspace, and in response to China\u2019s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea, the U.S. sent aircraft carriers to the region, raising the risk of a military confrontation.\u00a0<\/p>

Tensions rose yet again in late July when the U.S. ordered China to close its consulate in Houston, on the grounds that it was being used for various illicit purposes such as stealing intellectual property.\u00a0 Secretary of State Pompeo gave a major speech on China at the Nixon library, suggesting that the U.S. and China are in a Cold War.<\/p>

On a brighter note, President Trump met with Mexican President Lopez Obrador at the White House on July 8th<\/sup>, to celebrate the implementation of the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA).\u00a0 This new trade deal should have a number of positive benefits for the U.S. economy, including bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.<\/p>


Gold Prices Rising <\/u><\/p>

As mentioned above, the price of gold rose by more than 10% in July, reaching almost $2,000 an ounce by the end of the month.\u00a0 Gold has been climbing higher for several reasons, including the fact that it traditionally serves as a hedge against inflation.\u00a0 The risks of future inflation have risen because of the extremely easy monetary policies adopted by the Federal Reserve and other central banks.\u00a0 Also the dollar has been dropping for the past few months, and gold normally moves in the opposite direction of the dollar.<\/p>

Gold also benefits from today\u2019s extremely low interest rate environment, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding assets that do not pay interest or dividends.\u00a0 Finally, gold also serves as a safe haven in times of crisis or geopolitical stress, such as the recent increase in tensions with China.\u00a0 Therefore, although gold and silver have become overbought on a short-term basis, these precious metals are likely to continue moving higher over the longer term, and we believe that investors should own some gold and gold stocks in their portfolios.\u00a0<\/p>


Stock Market Remains in an Uptrend<\/u><\/p>

A review of our market indicators show that they remain generally strong, with no major signs of a peak in stock prices.\u00a0 Breadth remains healthy, leading stocks continue to make new highs, money flow indicators remain positive, etc.\u00a0 However after the market\u2019s big gains over the past four months, a pullback or consolidation period would be normal.<\/p>

On a related note, due to the extraordinary strength in big cap growth stocks this year, the Nasdaq has far outperformed the small cap Russell 2000.\u00a0 The relationship between big cap and small cap stocks has become very extended, so some reversion to the mean should be expected, which implies that there could be a period of small cap outperformance ahead.<\/p>

As we mentioned in a blog post in mid-July, our work showed that the homebuilding stocks were one of the most attractive groups in the market, based on a combination of fundamentals and technicals.\u00a0 Over the past few weeks these stocks have outperformed the market, and we believe they will continue to do so.\u00a0 In fact our model portfolio that we published in February contained a large overweighting in the homebuilding group, and this model portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past five months (more detail will be shown in the next blog post).<\/p>


Conclusion<\/u><\/p>

Stocks rose in July as investors were encouraged by progress on a vaccine and hopes for more government stimulus spending.\u00a0 We continue to have a constructive view of the market outlook, while keeping an eye on a number of risk factors and unknowns which have the potential to disrupt the bullish picture in the months ahead. \u00a0<\/p>

Valuation levels are high and tensions with China are rising.\u00a0 The political backdrop should start to have more influence on the market for the next three months, as the Presidential election is starting to heat up.\u00a0 Also the pace of the economic recovery is largely dependent on bringing the virus under control, but the speed at which this can be done remains a wild card at this time.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Monthly Investment Review \u2013 July 2020\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0August 4, 2020 After a modest pullback in June, the stock market continued its recent uptrend in July (see chart below).\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-monthly-letters"],"yoast_head":"\nMonthly Letter July 2020 - Strauss Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/07\/monthly-letter-july-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monthly Letter July 2020 - Strauss Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Monthly Investment Review \u2013 July 2020\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0August 4, 2020 After a modest pullback in June, the stock market continued its recent uptrend in July (see chart below).\u00a0 […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/07\/monthly-letter-july-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Strauss Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-08-07T18:52:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-08-07T19:10:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/SPX-D-073120-B-1024x725.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jon Strauss\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jon Strauss\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/07\\\/monthly-letter-july-2020\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/07\\\/monthly-letter-july-2020\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jon Strauss\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/fbcf8b9c67143127e8da9d24bd06fc08\"},\"headline\":\"Monthly Letter July 2020\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-08-07T18:52:05+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-08-07T19:10:54+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/07\\\/monthly-letter-july-2020\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1540,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/fbcf8b9c67143127e8da9d24bd06fc08\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/07\\\/monthly-letter-july-2020\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/SPX-D-073120-B-1024x725.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Monthly Letters\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/07\\\/monthly-letter-july-2020\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/07\\\/monthly-letter-july-2020\\\/\",\"name\":\"Monthly Letter July 2020 - 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