{"id":2119,"date":"2020-08-25T03:06:54","date_gmt":"2020-08-25T03:06:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/?p=2119"},"modified":"2020-08-25T03:17:38","modified_gmt":"2020-08-25T03:17:38","slug":"our-model-portfolio-is-outperforming-the-sp-500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/25\/our-model-portfolio-is-outperforming-the-sp-500\/","title":{"rendered":"Our Model Portfolio is Outperforming the S&#038;P 500"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"2119\" class=\"elementor elementor-2119\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-c1cfd5f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"c1cfd5f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-30ffca2\" data-id=\"30ffca2\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-218e61a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"218e61a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Our investment approach has produced much better returns than the benchmark S&amp;P 500 this year.\u00a0 This is due to two components:\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p><ul><li>Our model portfolio is outperforming.<\/li><li>We advised buying triple leveraged ETFs when the market was near its lows in March (this will be covered in a separate blog post).<\/li><\/ul><p>Earlier this year we published <a href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/20\/model-portfolio-mid-february-2020\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong><u>a model portfolio<\/u><\/strong><\/a> of 40 stocks and ETFs with the stated goal of outperforming the S&amp;P 500 index. \u00a0This analysis was done in mid-February, before the stock market began to drop due to the coronavirus.<\/p><p>We recently calculated the performance of this model portfolio, and are happy to report that it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past five months.\u00a0 We first published the portfolio on February 19<sup>th<\/sup> after the close.\u00a0 Therefore we have calculated performance from 2\/19\/20 to the most recent month end, which was 7\/31\/20.\u00a0<\/p><p>The portfolio declined by -1.2% during this period, while the S&amp;P 500 declined -3.4%, meaning that the portfolio had an excess return of 2.2% in just over five months.\u00a0<\/p><p>This performance was achieved with absolutely no turnover, holding the same group of stocks as the market went through the large V-shaped move that has occurred this year.\u00a0 Obviously this year has been a very unusual market environment, and most money managers are likely to have made some changes in portfolios since February.\u00a0<\/p><p>In fact we identified a number of valuable ideas for buying and selling at various times over the past five months, such as when the market formed a \u201cfollow through\u201d day on April 6<sup>th<\/sup>.\u00a0 However because we did not publish these trades on the blog, we will not include them in the discussion of the model portfolio.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p><p>In designing the portfolio in February, our analysis included several elements, including the following:\u00a0<\/p><ul><li><u>Equal weight the largest stocks in the S&amp;P 500<\/u>: A handful of giant capitalization stocks such as Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) account for roughly 20% of the total weight of the S&amp;P 500.\u00a0 Therefore to eliminate the risk of underperforming if these stocks did well, we included these stocks in the model portfolio with weights equal to their weights in the S&amp;P 500.<\/li><\/ul><ul><li><u>Sector weights<\/u>: Relative to the S&amp;P 500, we overweighted the technology sector, and in order to do this, slightly underweighted several other sectors, namely industrials, consumer cyclicals, consumer staples and financials.\u00a0 This sector analysis was based on a variety of considerations, including trends in relative strength.<\/li><\/ul><ul><li><u>Industry groups<\/u>: We overweighted the portfolio in selected industry groups, including residential construction and software.\u00a0 These groups were chosen because numerous stocks in each group had very attractive characteristics.\u00a0<\/li><\/ul><ul><li><u>Stock selection<\/u>: Our stock selection process is based on a combination of fundamentals and technicals.<ul><li>For the fundamental data, we are using a quantitative stock selection model with a proven track record, based on factors such as earnings growth and earnings estimate revisions.<\/li><li>For technical analysis, we are using state-of-the-art charting software to scan the market and identify stocks with bullish technical characteristics. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><ul><li><u>Risk is low because of diversification<\/u>: Despite the overweightings in certain industry groups, the portfolio is highly diversified, containing 36 stocks and four sector ETFs.<\/li><\/ul><p>Please see the spreadsheet below for more detail.\u00a0 The best performing stocks in the portfolio have been Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Synopsys (SNPS) and Fortinet (FTNT).\u00a0 The worst performing were OneMain (OMF), the Energy Sector ETF (XLE), Intel (INTC), Caci International (CACI) and Sun Life Financial (SLF).\u00a0<\/p><p>This data highlights the importance of sector and industry group weights.\u00a0 The technology sector has been the strongest sector in the market over the past five months, and we were overweighted in technology.\u00a0 By comparison, the financial sector has been very weak, and we were underweighted in financials.<\/p><p><u>Figure 1\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Performance of Model Portfolio &#8212; First Published in February 2020<\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4e693fe elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4e693fe\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b0e2e1d\" data-id=\"b0e2e1d\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-df627c4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"df627c4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1020\" height=\"615\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part1.png?fit=1020%2C615&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-2122\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part1.png?w=1020&amp;ssl=1 1020w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part1.png?resize=300%2C181&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part1.png?resize=768%2C463&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-ff265c7 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"ff265c7\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d50189b\" data-id=\"d50189b\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5adbd6e elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5adbd6e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"613\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part2.png?fit=1024%2C613&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-2124\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part2.png?w=1029&amp;ssl=1 1029w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part2.png?resize=300%2C180&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part2.png?resize=1024%2C613&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part2.png?resize=768%2C460&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-76f27c9 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"76f27c9\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7df1c75\" data-id=\"7df1c75\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3eaf946 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"3eaf946\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part3.png?fit=1024%2C563&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-2126\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part3.png?w=1029&amp;ssl=1 1029w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part3.png?resize=300%2C165&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part3.png?resize=1024%2C563&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part3.png?resize=768%2C422&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-1bfca62 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"1bfca62\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-fe229bc\" data-id=\"fe229bc\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-18ea7ff elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"18ea7ff\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Please contact us for more information or to discuss our investment process in more detail.<\/p><p>Jonathan Strauss, CFA<\/p><p>513 \u2013 379 \u2013 2792 (cell \/ text)<\/p><p>jon@straussresearch.com<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our investment approach has produced much better returns than the benchmark S&amp;P 500 this year.\u00a0 This is due to two components:\u00a0 Our model portfolio is outperforming. We advised buying triple leveraged ETFs when the market was near its lows in March (this will be covered in a separate blog post). Earlier this year we published [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-comments"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Our Model Portfolio is Outperforming the S&amp;P 500 - Strauss Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/25\/our-model-portfolio-is-outperforming-the-sp-500\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Our Model Portfolio is Outperforming the S&amp;P 500 - Strauss Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our investment approach has produced much better returns than the benchmark S&amp;P 500 this year.\u00a0 This is due to two components:\u00a0 Our model portfolio is outperforming. We advised buying triple leveraged ETFs when the market was near its lows in March (this will be covered in a separate blog post). Earlier this year we published [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/25\/our-model-portfolio-is-outperforming-the-sp-500\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Strauss Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-08-25T03:06:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-08-25T03:17:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/straussresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Model-Port-073120-Part1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jon Strauss\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jon Strauss\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/25\\\/our-model-portfolio-is-outperforming-the-sp-500\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/25\\\/our-model-portfolio-is-outperforming-the-sp-500\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jon Strauss\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/fbcf8b9c67143127e8da9d24bd06fc08\"},\"headline\":\"Our Model Portfolio is Outperforming the S&#038;P 500\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-08-25T03:06:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-08-25T03:17:38+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/25\\\/our-model-portfolio-is-outperforming-the-sp-500\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":666,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/fbcf8b9c67143127e8da9d24bd06fc08\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/25\\\/our-model-portfolio-is-outperforming-the-sp-500\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/Model-Port-073120-Part1.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Market Comments\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/25\\\/our-model-portfolio-is-outperforming-the-sp-500\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/straussresearch.com\\\/index.php\\\/2020\\\/08\\\/25\\\/our-model-portfolio-is-outperforming-the-sp-500\\\/\",\"name\":\"Our Model Portfolio is Outperforming the S&P 500 - 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